Dr. Furlan (PSD) holds the lead in the Amapá governor race per the latest Quaest poll (Sept. 20-23), with 53% to incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) at 40% in the stimulated first-round scenario, narrowing from wider earlier margins. The contest centers on these two candidates ahead of the Oct. 4 first round and possible Oct. 25 runoff, with minor contenders polling at 1% or below. Trader pricing reflects Furlan’s consistent polling edge alongside uncertainty from an ongoing TSE review of his candidacy registration, where one minister voted to bar him on eligibility grounds before the proceeding was paused. Clécio’s approval rating stands near 56% in the same survey, yet his lower vote share suggests limited momentum to close the gap before voting.