The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Rapid succession, minimal military defections, and a nationalist consolidation after major protests and economic strain have left the system intact under the new supreme leader. Recent appointments of hardline security figures, ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and restructuring of military command further signal institutional resilience with no verified signs of elite fracture or imminent upheaval. With only weeks remaining until September 30, the consensus reflects the absence of triggers capable of producing regime collapse in that narrow window, though an unforeseen internal power shift or escalation in regional tensions could still alter the trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
<1% шанс
$2,058,847 Обс.
$2,058,847 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
<1% шанс
$2,058,847 Обс.
$2,058,847 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Rapid succession, minimal military defections, and a nationalist consolidation after major protests and economic strain have left the system intact under the new supreme leader. Recent appointments of hardline security figures, ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and restructuring of military command further signal institutional resilience with no verified signs of elite fracture or imminent upheaval. With only weeks remaining until September 30, the consensus reflects the absence of triggers capable of producing regime collapse in that narrow window, though an unforeseen internal power shift or escalation in regional tensions could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Обсяг
$2,058,847Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Rapid succession, minimal military defections, and a nationalist consolidation after major protests and economic strain have left the system intact under the new supreme leader. Recent appointments of hardline security figures, ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and restructuring of military command further signal institutional resilience with no verified signs of elite fracture or imminent upheaval. With only weeks remaining until September 30, the consensus reflects the absence of triggers capable of producing regime collapse in that narrow window, though an unforeseen internal power shift or escalation in regional tensions could still alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$2,058,847Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei has reinforced trader expectations of continuity. Rapid succession, minimal military defections, and a nationalist consolidation after major protests and economic strain have left the system intact under the new supreme leader. Recent appointments of hardline security figures, ongoing negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and restructuring of military command further signal institutional resilience with no verified signs of elite fracture or imminent upheaval. With only weeks remaining until September 30, the consensus reflects the absence of triggers capable of producing regime collapse in that narrow window, though an unforeseen internal power shift or escalation in regional tensions could still alter the trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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