**Escalating Houthi seizures of strategic positions including Perim Island and Mokha in early September have intensified risks along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving down vessel transits and underpinning the 67.5% market-implied probability on fewer than 170 crossings for the week of September 14.** Recent tracking data show daily volumes in the low-to-mid 20s amid rerouting by major carriers, war-risk premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and selective returns limited to certain Asia-Med services by lines such as Maersk and MSC. Four-day periods ending mid-month recorded roughly 110 transits, consistent with a sustained reduction from pre-crisis baselines of 60–80 vessels per day and reflecting trader consensus on persistent security constraints rather than a near-term rebound. Upcoming catalysts include further regulatory filings on Suez routing and any escalation in Red Sea conflict that could widen the gap between implied odds and realized volumes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of September 14?
<170 66%
190-209 10%
210-229 5.3%
170-189 5%
$14,475 Обс.
$14,475 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
66%
170-189
11%
190-209
10%
210-229
5%
230+
3%
<170 66%
190-209 10%
210-229 5.3%
170-189 5%
$14,475 Обс.
$14,475 Обс.
Sep 20, 2026
<170
$6,152 Обс.
66%
170-189
$2,746 Обс.
11%
190-209
$2,731 Обс.
10%
210-229
$1,367 Обс.
5%
230+
$1,479 Обс.
3%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Escalating Houthi seizures of strategic positions including Perim Island and Mokha in early September have intensified risks along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving down vessel transits and underpinning the 67.5% market-implied probability on fewer than 170 crossings for the week of September 14.** Recent tracking data show daily volumes in the low-to-mid 20s amid rerouting by major carriers, war-risk premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and selective returns limited to certain Asia-Med services by lines such as Maersk and MSC. Four-day periods ending mid-month recorded roughly 110 transits, consistent with a sustained reduction from pre-crisis baselines of 60–80 vessels per day and reflecting trader consensus on persistent security constraints rather than a near-term rebound. Upcoming catalysts include further regulatory filings on Suez routing and any escalation in Red Sea conflict that could widen the gap between implied odds and realized volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,475Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Escalating Houthi seizures of strategic positions including Perim Island and Mokha in early September have intensified risks along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving down vessel transits and underpinning the 67.5% market-implied probability on fewer than 170 crossings for the week of September 14.** Recent tracking data show daily volumes in the low-to-mid 20s amid rerouting by major carriers, war-risk premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and selective returns limited to certain Asia-Med services by lines such as Maersk and MSC. Four-day periods ending mid-month recorded roughly 110 transits, consistent with a sustained reduction from pre-crisis baselines of 60–80 vessels per day and reflecting trader consensus on persistent security constraints rather than a near-term rebound. Upcoming catalysts include further regulatory filings on Suez routing and any escalation in Red Sea conflict that could widen the gap between implied odds and realized volumes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Обсяг
$14,475Дата завершення
Sep 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 11, 2026, 5:48 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Escalating Houthi seizures of strategic positions including Perim Island and Mokha in early September have intensified risks along the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving down vessel transits and underpinning the 67.5% market-implied probability on fewer than 170 crossings for the week of September 14.** Recent tracking data show daily volumes in the low-to-mid 20s amid rerouting by major carriers, war-risk premiums near 0.5% of hull value, and selective returns limited to certain Asia-Med services by lines such as Maersk and MSC. Four-day periods ending mid-month recorded roughly 110 transits, consistent with a sustained reduction from pre-crisis baselines of 60–80 vessels per day and reflecting trader consensus on persistent security constraints rather than a near-term rebound. Upcoming catalysts include further regulatory filings on Suez routing and any escalation in Red Sea conflict that could widen the gap between implied odds and realized volumes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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