Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select him amid an interim leadership council and ongoing military operations. As of mid-September 2026, he retains de facto authority despite limited public visibility, with Iranian officials confirming his active role and rejecting rumors of incapacity or removal. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime’s institutional continuity through clerical bodies, IRGC influence, and constitutional succession rules, tempered by sustained external pressure, sanctions, naval blockades, and domestic economic strain. Key variables include escalation in regional hostilities, health developments, or shifts in elite alignments that could alter the current equilibrium before resolution dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$25,233,775 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
October 31
6%
November 30
9%
31 грудня
15%
June 30, 2027
29%
$25,233,775 Обс.
September 30
$1,045,232 Обс.
2%
October 31
$86,628 Обс.
6%
November 30
$43,709 Обс.
9%
31 грудня
$4,467,629 Обс.
15%
June 30, 2027
$303,440 Обс.
29%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select him amid an interim leadership council and ongoing military operations. As of mid-September 2026, he retains de facto authority despite limited public visibility, with Iranian officials confirming his active role and rejecting rumors of incapacity or removal. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime’s institutional continuity through clerical bodies, IRGC influence, and constitutional succession rules, tempered by sustained external pressure, sanctions, naval blockades, and domestic economic strain. Key variables include escalation in regional hostilities, health developments, or shifts in elite alignments that could alter the current equilibrium before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ET
Обсяг
$25,233,775Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select him amid an interim leadership council and ongoing military operations. As of mid-September 2026, he retains de facto authority despite limited public visibility, with Iranian officials confirming his active role and rejecting rumors of incapacity or removal. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime’s institutional continuity through clerical bodies, IRGC influence, and constitutional succession rules, tempered by sustained external pressure, sanctions, naval blockades, and domestic economic strain. Key variables include escalation in regional hostilities, health developments, or shifts in elite alignments that could alter the current equilibrium before resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$25,233,775Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 10:43 AM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role of Supreme Leader in March 2026 following U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, prompting the Assembly of Experts to select him amid an interim leadership council and ongoing military operations. As of mid-September 2026, he retains de facto authority despite limited public visibility, with Iranian officials confirming his active role and rejecting rumors of incapacity or removal. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime’s institutional continuity through clerical bodies, IRGC influence, and constitutional succession rules, tempered by sustained external pressure, sanctions, naval blockades, and domestic economic strain. Key variables include escalation in regional hostilities, health developments, or shifts in elite alignments that could alter the current equilibrium before resolution dates.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання