The ECB's deposit facility rate stands at 2.25% ahead of an expected 25 basis point hike to 2.50% on September 10, 2026, reflecting the central bank's response to headline inflation accelerating above 3% on surging energy costs tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. With core measures easing modestly and limited evidence of broad second-round effects, analysts widely anticipate this move completes the tightening cycle, leaving rates at or above 2.50% through year-end and into 2027 as inflation converges toward target only in late 2027. Market-implied odds of 94.5% against an ECB rate cut in 2026 align with this path, reinforced by resilient growth and elevated Treasury yields. A swift de-escalation in energy markets or sharper-than-expected growth slowdown could still open the door to earlier easing.