Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin the 57.5% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC’s September 2026 median forecast stands at 2.3% for the year on a Q4/Q4 basis, reflecting steady consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a resilient labor market despite Q2 real GDP growth slowing to 1.5% annualized. Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have risen sharply to 5.1%, signaling near-term momentum that aligns with the central range. Elevated inflation readings have prompted expectations of additional policy tightening, which could moderate expansion later in the year while supporting the consensus band over lower or higher outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2.0–2.5% 57%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
>2.5% 18.5%
1.0–1.5% 3.9%
$70,030 Обс.
$70,030 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
4%
1.5–2.0%
19%
2.0–2.5%
57%
>2.5%
19%
2.0–2.5% 57%
1.5–2.0% 18.6%
>2.5% 18.5%
1.0–1.5% 3.9%
$70,030 Обс.
$70,030 Обс.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$8,018 Обс.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,639 Обс.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$4,262 Обс.
4%
1.5–2.0%
$8,556 Обс.
19%
2.0–2.5%
$13,178 Обс.
57%
>2.5%
$18,377 Обс.
19%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin the 57.5% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC’s September 2026 median forecast stands at 2.3% for the year on a Q4/Q4 basis, reflecting steady consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a resilient labor market despite Q2 real GDP growth slowing to 1.5% annualized. Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have risen sharply to 5.1%, signaling near-term momentum that aligns with the central range. Elevated inflation readings have prompted expectations of additional policy tightening, which could moderate expansion later in the year while supporting the consensus band over lower or higher outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$70,030Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin the 57.5% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC’s September 2026 median forecast stands at 2.3% for the year on a Q4/Q4 basis, reflecting steady consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a resilient labor market despite Q2 real GDP growth slowing to 1.5% annualized. Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have risen sharply to 5.1%, signaling near-term momentum that aligns with the central range. Elevated inflation readings have prompted expectations of additional policy tightening, which could moderate expansion later in the year while supporting the consensus band over lower or higher outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$70,030Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin the 57.5% implied probability for 2.0–2.5% full-year 2026 GDP growth. The FOMC’s September 2026 median forecast stands at 2.3% for the year on a Q4/Q4 basis, reflecting steady consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a resilient labor market despite Q2 real GDP growth slowing to 1.5% annualized. Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q3 2026 have risen sharply to 5.1%, signaling near-term momentum that aligns with the central range. Elevated inflation readings have prompted expectations of additional policy tightening, which could moderate expansion later in the year while supporting the consensus band over lower or higher outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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