Strong nowcasts and resilient demand data have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 69.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth reaching or exceeding 3.0% annualized in Q3 2026. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently tracks 5.1% growth as of mid-September, bolstered by upward revisions to consumer spending and government outlays, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and others center near 3.0% amid robust retail sales rebounds and AI-driven business investment. This contrasts with Q2’s 1.5% pace and reflects broader economic resilience despite elevated core inflation and a steady federal funds rate near 3.75–4.00%. Key upcoming catalysts include the advance Q3 GDP release and additional monthly data that could shift the market-implied odds if consumption or net exports weaken.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 5.3%
$35,055 Обс.
$35,055 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
5%
2.0–2.5%
6%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
70%
≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 6%
1.5–2.0% 5.3%
$35,055 Обс.
$35,055 Обс.
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$1,224 Обс.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$872 Обс.
2%
1.0–1.5%
$860 Обс.
2%
1.5–2.0%
$1,030 Обс.
5%
2.0–2.5%
$2,353 Обс.
6%
2.5–3.0%
$3,925 Обс.
11%
≥3.0%
$24,791 Обс.
70%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong nowcasts and resilient demand data have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 69.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth reaching or exceeding 3.0% annualized in Q3 2026. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently tracks 5.1% growth as of mid-September, bolstered by upward revisions to consumer spending and government outlays, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and others center near 3.0% amid robust retail sales rebounds and AI-driven business investment. This contrasts with Q2’s 1.5% pace and reflects broader economic resilience despite elevated core inflation and a steady federal funds rate near 3.75–4.00%. Key upcoming catalysts include the advance Q3 GDP release and additional monthly data that could shift the market-implied odds if consumption or net exports weaken.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$35,055Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong nowcasts and resilient demand data have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 69.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth reaching or exceeding 3.0% annualized in Q3 2026. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently tracks 5.1% growth as of mid-September, bolstered by upward revisions to consumer spending and government outlays, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and others center near 3.0% amid robust retail sales rebounds and AI-driven business investment. This contrasts with Q2’s 1.5% pace and reflects broader economic resilience despite elevated core inflation and a steady federal funds rate near 3.75–4.00%. Key upcoming catalysts include the advance Q3 GDP release and additional monthly data that could shift the market-implied odds if consumption or net exports weaken.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Обсяг
$35,055Дата завершення
Oct 29, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Strong nowcasts and resilient demand data have driven Polymarket traders to assign a 69.5% implied probability to U.S. real GDP growth reaching or exceeding 3.0% annualized in Q3 2026. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently tracks 5.1% growth as of mid-September, bolstered by upward revisions to consumer spending and government outlays, while private forecasts from Wells Fargo and others center near 3.0% amid robust retail sales rebounds and AI-driven business investment. This contrasts with Q2’s 1.5% pace and reflects broader economic resilience despite elevated core inflation and a steady federal funds rate near 3.75–4.00%. Key upcoming catalysts include the advance Q3 GDP release and additional monthly data that could shift the market-implied odds if consumption or net exports weaken.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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