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icon for Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Політика·явка

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

icon for Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
Політика·явка

Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)

290K-305K 40%

305K-320K 30%

275K-290K 27%

260K-275K 7.1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

290K-305K 40%

305K-320K 30%

275K-290K 27%

260K-275K 7.1%

Polymarket
НОВЕ

<230K

$340 Обс.

1%

230K-245K

$334 Обс.

1%

245K-260K

$353 Обс.

1%

260K-275K

$456 Обс.

7%

275K-290K

$870 Обс.

27%

290K-305K

$1,240 Обс.

40%

305K-320K

$1,059 Обс.

30%

320K+

$327 Обс.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$4,979
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The competitive U.S. Senate contest between Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola, combined with an open gubernatorial race, has generated sustained voter interest ahead of the November 3 general election.** Recent polling shows a toss-up, with Peltola holding narrow leads in several surveys and Sullivan maintaining an edge in others, consistent with Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and its history of close statewide outcomes. The August 18 top-four primary drew unusually high participation—nearly 167,000 ballots, or about 27.7% of registered voters—reflecting elevated stakes that analysts link to the absence of an incumbent governor and the Senate matchup’s national implications. These factors support trader expectations for general-election turnout in the 290,000–305,000 range as the most probable outcome, with adjacent bands reflecting typical variability in a state where registered voters number around 600,000 and participation is influenced by mail and early voting patterns.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$4,979
Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 10:09 AM ET

Вирішувач

0x69c47De9D...

Пов'язане

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Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be less than 600,000?

32%
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30%

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 8 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «290K-305K» з 40%, далі «305K-320K» з 30%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

«Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)» — це нещодавно створений ринок на Polymarket, запущений Aug 18, 2026. Як ранній ринок, це ваша можливість бути серед перших трейдерів, що встановлюють шанси. Ви також можете зберегти цю сторінку в закладки для відстеження обсягу.

Щоб торгувати на «Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)», перегляньте 8 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)» — «290K-305K» з 40%. Наступний — «305K-320K» з 30%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.