Georgia’s 2026 Senate general election between incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff and Republican Mike Collins features consistent polling showing Ossoff ahead by roughly 7 points, with the race rated Lean or Likely Democratic by major forecasters. This competitive environment, combined with Georgia’s history of elevated midterm participation when Senate and statewide contests are on the ballot, supports trader expectations for total votes in the 4.0–4.4 million range. Midterm turnout has historically run 15–20 points below presidential levels, yet strong early-voting patterns in recent Georgia cycles and ongoing campaign mobilization efforts by both parties could push participation toward the higher end of recent non-presidential benchmarks. Late shifts in voter enthusiasm or weather on November 3 remain the main variables that could separate the leading bins.