Recent polls ahead of Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote show incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party locked in a statistical tie for a potential runoff on October 25. Multiple surveys from AtlasIntel, Quaest, Datafolha, and BTG Pactual/Nexus place both candidates within the margin of error in runoff scenarios, typically around 42–47 percent each, while Lula holds a modest first-round edge. The race reflects deep polarization, with both frontrunners facing rejection rates near 50 percent amid voter concerns over the economy, security, and corruption. Flávio Bolsonaro carries the banner of the right-wing movement after his father Jair was barred from running due to a conviction related to efforts to challenge the 2022 results. Traders assessing this market appear to weigh the narrow polling margins, high undecided shares, and the possibility that late shifts or turnout could decide advancement to the runoff.