Ed Case maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its consistent D+13 or safer ratings from forecasters and Case’s 71.8% general-election margin in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 58-60% of the vote against a progressive challenger, demonstrating resilience in a district centered on Honolulu and Oahu. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who faced no primary opposition, starts from a limited base in a constituency where Democrats have dominated recent House contests. With the November 3 general election approaching, the wide implied probability gap aligns with historical turnout patterns and the absence of major developments that would alter the district’s partisan fundamentals. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unforeseen health, legal, or national political shocks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,619 ปริมาณ
$35,619 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,619 ปริมาณ
$35,619 ปริมาณ
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 ปริมาณ
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,465 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its consistent D+13 or safer ratings from forecasters and Case’s 71.8% general-election margin in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 58-60% of the vote against a progressive challenger, demonstrating resilience in a district centered on Honolulu and Oahu. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who faced no primary opposition, starts from a limited base in a constituency where Democrats have dominated recent House contests. With the November 3 general election approaching, the wide implied probability gap aligns with historical turnout patterns and the absence of major developments that would alter the district’s partisan fundamentals. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unforeseen health, legal, or national political shocks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,619วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Ed Case maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its consistent D+13 or safer ratings from forecasters and Case’s 71.8% general-election margin in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 58-60% of the vote against a progressive challenger, demonstrating resilience in a district centered on Honolulu and Oahu. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who faced no primary opposition, starts from a limited base in a constituency where Democrats have dominated recent House contests. With the November 3 general election approaching, the wide implied probability gap aligns with historical turnout patterns and the absence of major developments that would alter the district’s partisan fundamentals. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unforeseen health, legal, or national political shocks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35,619วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x2F5e3684c...Ed Case maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District due to the seat’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its consistent D+13 or safer ratings from forecasters and Case’s 71.8% general-election margin in 2024. The incumbent secured the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary with roughly 58-60% of the vote against a progressive challenger, demonstrating resilience in a district centered on Honolulu and Oahu. Republican nominee Adriel Lam, who faced no primary opposition, starts from a limited base in a constituency where Democrats have dominated recent House contests. With the November 3 general election approaching, the wide implied probability gap aligns with historical turnout patterns and the absence of major developments that would alter the district’s partisan fundamentals. Late shifts remain possible only in the event of unforeseen health, legal, or national political shocks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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