Musk’s completed exit from formal government service in May 2025 after leading the short-term Department of Government Efficiency initiative continues to anchor the 91% “No” odds. Traders see his sustained focus on private-sector priorities at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—including recent model releases, factory expansions, and Starship development—as outweighing any informal advisory ties or midterm spending through America PAC. The DOGE effort itself formally ended in July 2026, with no credible reports of new nominations or appointments this year. While reconciliation with Trump has enabled business-advisory roles and political donations, market consensus treats these as distinct from rejoining the administration, given Musk’s history of prioritizing operational demands at his AI, EV, and space ventures over sustained Washington positions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВернется ли Илон Маск в администрацию Трампа в 2026 году?
Вернется ли Илон Маск в администрацию Трампа в 2026 году?
Да
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
8% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s completed exit from formal government service in May 2025 after leading the short-term Department of Government Efficiency initiative continues to anchor the 91% “No” odds. Traders see his sustained focus on private-sector priorities at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—including recent model releases, factory expansions, and Starship development—as outweighing any informal advisory ties or midterm spending through America PAC. The DOGE effort itself formally ended in July 2026, with no credible reports of new nominations or appointments this year. While reconciliation with Trump has enabled business-advisory roles and political donations, market consensus treats these as distinct from rejoining the administration, given Musk’s history of prioritizing operational demands at his AI, EV, and space ventures over sustained Washington positions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$9,739Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Musk’s completed exit from formal government service in May 2025 after leading the short-term Department of Government Efficiency initiative continues to anchor the 91% “No” odds. Traders see his sustained focus on private-sector priorities at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—including recent model releases, factory expansions, and Starship development—as outweighing any informal advisory ties or midterm spending through America PAC. The DOGE effort itself formally ended in July 2026, with no credible reports of new nominations or appointments this year. While reconciliation with Trump has enabled business-advisory roles and political donations, market consensus treats these as distinct from rejoining the administration, given Musk’s history of prioritizing operational demands at his AI, EV, and space ventures over sustained Washington positions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$9,739Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Musk’s completed exit from formal government service in May 2025 after leading the short-term Department of Government Efficiency initiative continues to anchor the 91% “No” odds. Traders see his sustained focus on private-sector priorities at Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI—including recent model releases, factory expansions, and Starship development—as outweighing any informal advisory ties or midterm spending through America PAC. The DOGE effort itself formally ended in July 2026, with no credible reports of new nominations or appointments this year. While reconciliation with Trump has enabled business-advisory roles and political donations, market consensus treats these as distinct from rejoining the administration, given Musk’s history of prioritizing operational demands at his AI, EV, and space ventures over sustained Washington positions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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