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icon for Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?

Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?

icon for Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?

Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?

Да

4% вероятность
Polymarket

$537,758 Объем

Да

4% вероятность
Polymarket

$537,758 Объем

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has shown no public or private signals of intending to resign before the end of 2026, with recent statements emphasizing legislative priorities, midterm campaigning, and post-presidency plans while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent on “No” reflects the absence of active impeachment proceedings, sustained 25th Amendment discussions, or cabinet-level pressure as of September 2026, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete terms absent acute crises. Speculation from political opponents citing health concerns, the ongoing Iran conflict, or expected midterm results has not produced verifiable evidence of resignation plans. A sudden medical emergency, Senate conviction risk from new legal developments, or unprecedented party pressure following November elections could still alter probabilities, though no such triggers are currently underway.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$537,758
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x157Ce2d67...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.President Donald Trump has shown no public or private signals of intending to resign before the end of 2026, with recent statements emphasizing legislative priorities, midterm campaigning, and post-presidency plans while acknowledging constitutional term limits. Trader consensus at 96.5 percent on “No” reflects the absence of active impeachment proceedings, sustained 25th Amendment discussions, or cabinet-level pressure as of September 2026, consistent with historical patterns where sitting presidents complete terms absent acute crises. Speculation from political opponents citing health concerns, the ongoing Iran conflict, or expected midterm results has not produced verifiable evidence of resignation plans. A sudden medical emergency, Senate conviction risk from new legal developments, or unprecedented party pressure following November elections could still alter probabilities, though no such triggers are currently underway.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$537,758
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x157Ce2d67...

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Уйдёт ли Трамп в отставку до 31 декабря 2026 года?» с 3%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 3¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 3%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $537.8K с момента запуска рынка Jul 25, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Это очень открытый рынок. Текущий лидер для «Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?» — «Уйдёт ли Трамп в отставку до 31 декабря 2026 года?» всего с 3%. Поскольку ни один исход не доминирует, трейдеры видят это как крайне неопределённую ситуацию, что может создавать уникальные торговые возможности. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени, так что добавь эту страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Уйдет ли Трамп в отставку к 31 декабря 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.