Skip to main content

Чтобы торговать в США, перейдите на polymarket.us

icon for SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
Технологии·Бизнес

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

icon for SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
Технологии·Бизнес

SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?

янв. 1, 2027

янв. 1, 2028

янв. 1, 2027

янв. 1, 2028

63% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
63% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.SpaceX's demonstrated progress with Super Heavy booster tower catches and reflights, combined with Flight 13's intact Starship reentry and controlled splashdown in July 2026, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability for full reusability before 2028. These milestones reflect iterative gains in heatshield performance, engine relights, and recovery hardware using V3 vehicles. The upcoming Flight 14 orbital attempt on September 22 could further validate upper-stage operations ahead of planned Starlink V3 deployments. Elon Musk's target for the first Ship reflight by early 2027 highlights the company's pace, though tower capture of the upper stage and a complete rapid-reuse cycle for both stages remain undemonstrated hurdles within the tight 15-month window.

On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.

The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.
Объем
$1,027
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...
On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.SpaceX's demonstrated progress with Super Heavy booster tower catches and reflights, combined with Flight 13's intact Starship reentry and controlled splashdown in July 2026, underpins the 65.5% market-implied probability for full reusability before 2028. These milestones reflect iterative gains in heatshield performance, engine relights, and recovery hardware using V3 vehicles. The upcoming Flight 14 orbital attempt on September 22 could further validate upper-stage operations ahead of planned Starlink V3 deployments. Elon Musk's target for the first Ship reflight by early 2027 highlights the company's pace, though tower capture of the upper stage and a complete rapid-reuse cycle for both stages remain undemonstrated hurdles within the tight 15-month window.

On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster.

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date.

The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.On February 28, Elon Musk posted that it was likely Starship would become fully reusable in 2025. You can see the X post here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1895598258225106984 This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note, this market refers to the Starship upper stage and does not require reusability for the Super-Heavy booster. For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is not necessary that an actual reuse occur, only that SpaceX or Elon Musk announces that Starship is fully reusable by this market's resolution date. The resolution source for this market is announcements by Elon Musk and SpaceX, or their official representatives.
Объем
$1,027
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 10, 2026, 11:08 AM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x65070BE91...

Связанные

icon for SpaceX Starship станет полностью многоразовой до 2027 года?

SpaceX Starship станет полностью многоразовой до 2027 года?

40%
Да
icon for Будет ли у SpaceX от 140 до 159 запусков в 2026 году?

Будет ли у SpaceX от 140 до 159 запусков в 2026 году?

76%
Да
icon for Запустятся ли 5-6 кораблей SpaceX Starship успешно в космос в 2026 году?

Запустятся ли 5-6 кораблей SpaceX Starship успешно в космос в 2026 году?

47%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 67% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 67¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 67%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jun 10, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?», просто выбери, считаешь ли ты, что ответ — «Да» или «Нет». Каждая сторона имеет текущую цену, отражающую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты купишь акции «Да» и исход разрешится как «Да», каждая акция принесёт $1. Если исход — «Нет», твои акции «Да» принесут $0. Ты также можешь продать свои акции в любой момент до разрешения, чтобы зафиксировать прибыль или ограничить убыток.

Текущая вероятность для «SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?» составляет 67% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 67%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.