SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПалочки для еды поймают верхнюю ступень Starship к...?
Палочки для еды поймают верхнюю ступень Starship к...?
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
6%
31 октября 2026 года
51%
$1,995 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$102 Объем
6%
31 октября 2026 года
$12 Объем
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Открытие рынка: Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ET
Объем
$1,995Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Starship upper stage is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.
If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower's chopsticks, that attempt will not qualify. If no Starship launch occurs, or a successful catch does not take place, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Объем
$1,995Дата окончания
1 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 8, 2026, 12:16 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...SpaceX has validated Mechazilla tower catches with multiple Super Heavy boosters since 2024, establishing precision guidance and arm hardware, while Starship upper stages have achieved progressively softer splashdowns, including Ship 40’s precise July 2026 landing on Flight 13 that Elon Musk stated would have been catchable. Recent September 2026 rehearsals at Pad 2 lifted Ship 42 (Flight 15 vehicle) into the chopsticks for alignment, pusher, and Ship Quick Disconnect tests, signaling active preparation for an orbital-class catch attempt distinct from booster operations due to higher reentry speeds and aerodynamics. Flight 14, targeting late September with Ship 41 for Starlink V3 deployment, remains the near-term catalyst, though regulatory approval and post-flight data reviews could shift the first ship-catch window into October or beyond. Trader-implied odds reflect rapid iteration patterns once initial attempts begin.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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