SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now include androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, but no ship-to-ship rendezvous or docking has occurred through Flight 13 in July 2026. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between recent suborbital and early orbital progress—such as Flight 14's targeted September 22 orbital insertion, Starlink V3 deployment, and engine relight—and the complex sequence of sequential launches, automated rendezvous, and sustained connection required for a qualifying dock in stable orbit. FAA licensing for extended orbital operations and rapid reuse remain key near-term hurdles, with any successful Q4 2026 propellant transfer test likely to shift implied probabilities for a 2026 resolution while highlighting the technical and regulatory risks that could push the milestone into 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоTwo SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
Two SpaceX Starships dock together by…?
$70,303 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря 2026 года
3%
31 декабря 2027 года
52%
$70,303 Объем
31 декабря 2026 года
$46,234 Объем
3%
31 декабря 2027 года
$24,069 Объем
52%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now include androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, but no ship-to-ship rendezvous or docking has occurred through Flight 13 in July 2026. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between recent suborbital and early orbital progress—such as Flight 14's targeted September 22 orbital insertion, Starlink V3 deployment, and engine relight—and the complex sequence of sequential launches, automated rendezvous, and sustained connection required for a qualifying dock in stable orbit. FAA licensing for extended orbital operations and rapid reuse remain key near-term hurdles, with any successful Q4 2026 propellant transfer test likely to shift implied probabilities for a 2026 resolution while highlighting the technical and regulatory risks that could push the milestone into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Объем
$70,303Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now include androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, but no ship-to-ship rendezvous or docking has occurred through Flight 13 in July 2026. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between recent suborbital and early orbital progress—such as Flight 14's targeted September 22 orbital insertion, Starlink V3 deployment, and engine relight—and the complex sequence of sequential launches, automated rendezvous, and sustained connection required for a qualifying dock in stable orbit. FAA licensing for extended orbital operations and rapid reuse remain key near-term hurdles, with any successful Q4 2026 propellant transfer test likely to shift implied probabilities for a 2026 resolution while highlighting the technical and regulatory risks that could push the milestone into 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.
The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$70,303Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 11, 2026, 1:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's Version 3 Starships now include androgynous docking ports and propellant transfer hardware, but no ship-to-ship rendezvous or docking has occurred through Flight 13 in July 2026. Trader sentiment reflects the gap between recent suborbital and early orbital progress—such as Flight 14's targeted September 22 orbital insertion, Starlink V3 deployment, and engine relight—and the complex sequence of sequential launches, automated rendezvous, and sustained connection required for a qualifying dock in stable orbit. FAA licensing for extended orbital operations and rapid reuse remain key near-term hurdles, with any successful Q4 2026 propellant transfer test likely to shift implied probabilities for a 2026 resolution while highlighting the technical and regulatory risks that could push the milestone into 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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