**Meta's commanding 90.5% implied probability reflects its established third-place standing among AI labs heading into the final days of September 2026.** OpenAI and Anthropic occupy the top spots on most leaderboards with models like GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1, while Meta's Muse Spark 1.2/1.3 series and prior Llama 4 open-weight releases deliver consistent benchmark results, broad developer adoption, and ecosystem momentum without frontier-level breakthroughs. Traders view this hierarchy as stable given the short window to month-end and the absence of credible surges from Google DeepMind, xAI, or Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. A late proprietary model release or sharp benchmark jump from one of those rivals could still alter the arena.ai Text Arena labs ranking and test the consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоThird-best AI Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Lab end of September?
Meta 90.3%
Google 8%
Moonshot 1.4%
Alibaba 1.4%
$93,268 Объем
$93,268 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Meta
90%
8%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Baidu
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 90.3%
Google 8%
Moonshot 1.4%
Alibaba 1.4%
$93,268 Объем
$93,268 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Meta
$12,728 Объем
90%
$40,693 Объем
8%
Moonshot
$3,257 Объем
1%
Alibaba
$9,480 Объем
1%
Baidu
$1,997 Объем
1%
SpaceXAI
$2,307 Объем
<1%
OpenAI
$5,892 Объем
<1%
Anthropic
$2,055 Объем
<1%
Z.ai
$2,441 Объем
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,445 Объем
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,209 Объем
<1%
ByteDance
$997 Объем
<1%
Amazon
$441 Объем
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Объем
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Объем
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Объем
<1%
Mistral
$669 Объем
<1%
Meituan
$970 Объем
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Объем
<1%
StepFun
$421 Объем
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Meta's commanding 90.5% implied probability reflects its established third-place standing among AI labs heading into the final days of September 2026.**
OpenAI and Anthropic occupy the top spots on most leaderboards with models like GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1, while Meta's Muse Spark 1.2/1.3 series and prior Llama 4 open-weight releases deliver consistent benchmark results, broad developer adoption, and ecosystem momentum without frontier-level breakthroughs. Traders view this hierarchy as stable given the short window to month-end and the absence of credible surges from Google DeepMind, xAI, or Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot.
A late proprietary model release or sharp benchmark jump from one of those rivals could still alter the arena.ai Text Arena labs ranking and test the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$93,268Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".**Meta's commanding 90.5% implied probability reflects its established third-place standing among AI labs heading into the final days of September 2026.**
OpenAI and Anthropic occupy the top spots on most leaderboards with models like GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1, while Meta's Muse Spark 1.2/1.3 series and prior Llama 4 open-weight releases deliver consistent benchmark results, broad developer adoption, and ecosystem momentum without frontier-level breakthroughs. Traders view this hierarchy as stable given the short window to month-end and the absence of credible surges from Google DeepMind, xAI, or Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot.
A late proprietary model release or sharp benchmark jump from one of those rivals could still alter the arena.ai Text Arena labs ranking and test the consensus.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Объем
$93,268Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labsКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Meta's commanding 90.5% implied probability reflects its established third-place standing among AI labs heading into the final days of September 2026.** OpenAI and Anthropic occupy the top spots on most leaderboards with models like GPT-6 Astra and Claude Fable 5.1, while Meta's Muse Spark 1.2/1.3 series and prior Llama 4 open-weight releases deliver consistent benchmark results, broad developer adoption, and ecosystem momentum without frontier-level breakthroughs. Traders view this hierarchy as stable given the short window to month-end and the absence of credible surges from Google DeepMind, xAI, or Chinese labs like Alibaba or Moonshot. A late proprietary model release or sharp benchmark jump from one of those rivals could still alter the arena.ai Text Arena labs ranking and test the consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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