Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness survived a July 2026 meltdown triggered by leveraged bets on semiconductor and data-center names that reversed sharply, prompting margin calls and a forced sale of its roughly $16 billion public-equity book to Citadel at a discount. Assets contracted from a peak near $45 billion to around $10 billion, yet the firm retained its multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake and other private holdings, eliminated leverage, and committed in investor letters to operating as a private vehicle rather than winding down. Subsequent activity, including a reported $400 million commitment to a chip startup, has reinforced trader consensus that full liquidation or capital return by year-end remains unlikely, with market-implied odds for such an announcement staying very low. Key swing factors include post-September lock-up redemptions or renewed AI volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСитуационная осведомленность объявляет о сворачивании фонда на...?
Ситуационная осведомленность объявляет о сворачивании фонда на...?
$158,754 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
31 декабря
5%
$158,754 Объем
31 декабря
$92,583 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness survived a July 2026 meltdown triggered by leveraged bets on semiconductor and data-center names that reversed sharply, prompting margin calls and a forced sale of its roughly $16 billion public-equity book to Citadel at a discount. Assets contracted from a peak near $45 billion to around $10 billion, yet the firm retained its multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake and other private holdings, eliminated leverage, and committed in investor letters to operating as a private vehicle rather than winding down. Subsequent activity, including a reported $400 million commitment to a chip startup, has reinforced trader consensus that full liquidation or capital return by year-end remains unlikely, with market-implied odds for such an announcement staying very low. Key swing factors include post-September lock-up redemptions or renewed AI volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Объем
$158,754Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness survived a July 2026 meltdown triggered by leveraged bets on semiconductor and data-center names that reversed sharply, prompting margin calls and a forced sale of its roughly $16 billion public-equity book to Citadel at a discount. Assets contracted from a peak near $45 billion to around $10 billion, yet the firm retained its multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake and other private holdings, eliminated leverage, and committed in investor letters to operating as a private vehicle rather than winding down. Subsequent activity, including a reported $400 million commitment to a chip startup, has reinforced trader consensus that full liquidation or capital return by year-end remains unlikely, with market-implied odds for such an announcement staying very low. Key swing factors include post-September lock-up redemptions or renewed AI volatility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$158,754Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Leopold Aschenbrenner’s AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness survived a July 2026 meltdown triggered by leveraged bets on semiconductor and data-center names that reversed sharply, prompting margin calls and a forced sale of its roughly $16 billion public-equity book to Citadel at a discount. Assets contracted from a peak near $45 billion to around $10 billion, yet the firm retained its multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake and other private holdings, eliminated leverage, and committed in investor letters to operating as a private vehicle rather than winding down. Subsequent activity, including a reported $400 million commitment to a chip startup, has reinforced trader consensus that full liquidation or capital return by year-end remains unlikely, with market-implied odds for such an announcement staying very low. Key swing factors include post-September lock-up redemptions or renewed AI volatility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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