Recent upward revisions in India's CPI trajectory, driven by elevated global crude prices above $100 per barrel and food inflation pressures from a southwest monsoon running 15% below average, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation finishing 2026 above 4.50%. The RBI's latest 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflects pass-through from higher input costs visible in WPI prints exceeding 9% and August CPI expected around 4.9%. Recent prints have climbed steadily from sub-4% levels earlier in the year amid transport and core pressures near 4.7%. A stronger monsoon recovery, sharper oil price decline, or accelerated rupee appreciation could still compress the annual average below the threshold, though current data and forward indicators point to sustained elevation through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,50%+ 91%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 4.8%
<0,75% 1.3%
От 3,00% до 3,74% <1%
$84,002 Объем
$84,002 Объем
11 янв. 2027 г.
<0,75%
1%
0,75% до 1,49%
<1%
1,50% до 2,24%
<1%
2,25% – 2,99%
<1%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
1%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
5%
4,50%+
91%
4,50%+ 91%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 4.8%
<0,75% 1.3%
От 3,00% до 3,74% <1%
$84,002 Объем
$84,002 Объем
11 янв. 2027 г.
<0,75%
$2,299 Объем
1%
0,75% до 1,49%
$1,520 Объем
<1%
1,50% до 2,24%
$1,580 Объем
<1%
2,25% – 2,99%
$25,446 Объем
<1%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
$2,410 Объем
1%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
$30,349 Объем
5%
4,50%+
$20,397 Объем
91%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent upward revisions in India's CPI trajectory, driven by elevated global crude prices above $100 per barrel and food inflation pressures from a southwest monsoon running 15% below average, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation finishing 2026 above 4.50%. The RBI's latest 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflects pass-through from higher input costs visible in WPI prints exceeding 9% and August CPI expected around 4.9%. Recent prints have climbed steadily from sub-4% levels earlier in the year amid transport and core pressures near 4.7%. A stronger monsoon recovery, sharper oil price decline, or accelerated rupee appreciation could still compress the annual average below the threshold, though current data and forward indicators point to sustained elevation through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Объем
$84,002Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent upward revisions in India's CPI trajectory, driven by elevated global crude prices above $100 per barrel and food inflation pressures from a southwest monsoon running 15% below average, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation finishing 2026 above 4.50%. The RBI's latest 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflects pass-through from higher input costs visible in WPI prints exceeding 9% and August CPI expected around 4.9%. Recent prints have climbed steadily from sub-4% levels earlier in the year amid transport and core pressures near 4.7%. A stronger monsoon recovery, sharper oil price decline, or accelerated rupee appreciation could still compress the annual average below the threshold, though current data and forward indicators point to sustained elevation through year-end.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Объем
$84,002Дата окончания
12 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent upward revisions in India's CPI trajectory, driven by elevated global crude prices above $100 per barrel and food inflation pressures from a southwest monsoon running 15% below average, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds for annual inflation finishing 2026 above 4.50%. The RBI's latest 5.1% projection for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9%, reflects pass-through from higher input costs visible in WPI prints exceeding 9% and August CPI expected around 4.9%. Recent prints have climbed steadily from sub-4% levels earlier in the year amid transport and core pressures near 4.7%. A stronger monsoon recovery, sharper oil price decline, or accelerated rupee appreciation could still compress the annual average below the threshold, though current data and forward indicators point to sustained elevation through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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