Recent Focus survey data from Brazil's central bank show the median 2026 IPCA expectation rising to 4.92% as of September 21, anchoring trader consensus near the 5.00-5.49% band that holds the highest implied probability. August's -0.32% monthly reading brought the 12-month rate to 4.22%, the lowest since March, while five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts to 13.75% reflect cooling demand and pre-election policy easing. These developments, alongside subdued food and energy prices, support the 4.50-4.99% and 5.50-5.99% ranges as secondary outcomes. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positions on the final year-end print relative to the 3% target with a 4.5% upper tolerance band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено5,00–5,49% 43.5%
4,50–4,99% 30.4%
5,50–5,99% 23.8%
4,00–4,49% 2.6%
$123,232 Объем
$123,232 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
<1%
3,00-3,49%
<1%
3,50–3,99%
1%
4,00–4,49%
3%
4,50–4,99%
30%
5,00–5,49%
43%
5,50–5,99%
24%
6,00–6,49%
2%
6,50–6,99%
<1%
7,00%+
<1%
5,00–5,49% 43.5%
4,50–4,99% 30.4%
5,50–5,99% 23.8%
4,00–4,49% 2.6%
$123,232 Объем
$123,232 Объем
12 янв. 2027 г.
<3,00%
$6,842 Объем
<1%
3,00-3,49%
$6,724 Объем
<1%
3,50–3,99%
$14,279 Объем
1%
4,00–4,49%
$15,402 Объем
3%
4,50–4,99%
$24,183 Объем
30%
5,00–5,49%
$18,749 Объем
43%
5,50–5,99%
$14,543 Объем
24%
6,00–6,49%
$8,051 Объем
2%
6,50–6,99%
$8,240 Объем
<1%
7,00%+
$6,231 Объем
<1%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data from Brazil's central bank show the median 2026 IPCA expectation rising to 4.92% as of September 21, anchoring trader consensus near the 5.00-5.49% band that holds the highest implied probability. August's -0.32% monthly reading brought the 12-month rate to 4.22%, the lowest since March, while five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts to 13.75% reflect cooling demand and pre-election policy easing. These developments, alongside subdued food and energy prices, support the 4.50-4.99% and 5.50-5.99% ranges as secondary outcomes. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positions on the final year-end print relative to the 3% target with a 4.5% upper tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Объем
$123,232Дата окончания
13 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent Focus survey data from Brazil's central bank show the median 2026 IPCA expectation rising to 4.92% as of September 21, anchoring trader consensus near the 5.00-5.49% band that holds the highest implied probability. August's -0.32% monthly reading brought the 12-month rate to 4.22%, the lowest since March, while five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts to 13.75% reflect cooling demand and pre-election policy easing. These developments, alongside subdued food and energy prices, support the 4.50-4.99% and 5.50-5.99% ranges as secondary outcomes. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positions on the final year-end print relative to the 3% target with a 4.5% upper tolerance band.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Объем
$123,232Дата окончания
13 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Focus survey data from Brazil's central bank show the median 2026 IPCA expectation rising to 4.92% as of September 21, anchoring trader consensus near the 5.00-5.49% band that holds the highest implied probability. August's -0.32% monthly reading brought the 12-month rate to 4.22%, the lowest since March, while five consecutive 25-basis-point Selic cuts to 13.75% reflect cooling demand and pre-election policy easing. These developments, alongside subdued food and energy prices, support the 4.50-4.99% and 5.50-5.99% ranges as secondary outcomes. Market-implied odds aggregate real-capital positions on the final year-end print relative to the 3% target with a 4.5% upper tolerance band.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы