Advanced near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring by NASA’s Sentry system, ESA surveys, and ground-based telescopes has identified no catalogued asteroids on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst or impact during 2026. Recent detections, such as the metre-scale 2026 RW1 that was tracked for hours before a harmless ocean strike, confirm that objects large enough for significant energy release remain statistically rare and would likely trigger early alerts if on risky paths. Close approaches continue as safe flybys, while historical fireball data and refined orbital catalogs reinforce the low annual probability of such events. Ongoing planetary defense refinements and the absence of new high-risk objects sustain trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with resolution hinging on NASA JPL fireball records through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКрупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Крупный удар метеорита (10 тыс. тонн +) в 2026 году?
Да
13% вероятность
$202,895 Объем
$202,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
$202,895 Объем
$202,895 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring by NASA’s Sentry system, ESA surveys, and ground-based telescopes has identified no catalogued asteroids on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst or impact during 2026. Recent detections, such as the metre-scale 2026 RW1 that was tracked for hours before a harmless ocean strike, confirm that objects large enough for significant energy release remain statistically rare and would likely trigger early alerts if on risky paths. Close approaches continue as safe flybys, while historical fireball data and refined orbital catalogs reinforce the low annual probability of such events. Ongoing planetary defense refinements and the absence of new high-risk objects sustain trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with resolution hinging on NASA JPL fireball records through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Объем
$202,895Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Advanced near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring by NASA’s Sentry system, ESA surveys, and ground-based telescopes has identified no catalogued asteroids on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst or impact during 2026. Recent detections, such as the metre-scale 2026 RW1 that was tracked for hours before a harmless ocean strike, confirm that objects large enough for significant energy release remain statistically rare and would likely trigger early alerts if on risky paths. Close approaches continue as safe flybys, while historical fireball data and refined orbital catalogs reinforce the low annual probability of such events. Ongoing planetary defense refinements and the absence of new high-risk objects sustain trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with resolution hinging on NASA JPL fireball records through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Объем
$202,895Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Advanced near-Earth object (NEO) monitoring by NASA’s Sentry system, ESA surveys, and ground-based telescopes has identified no catalogued asteroids on collision trajectories capable of producing a 10kt+ airburst or impact during 2026. Recent detections, such as the metre-scale 2026 RW1 that was tracked for hours before a harmless ocean strike, confirm that objects large enough for significant energy release remain statistically rare and would likely trigger early alerts if on risky paths. Close approaches continue as safe flybys, while historical fireball data and refined orbital catalogs reinforce the low annual probability of such events. Ongoing planetary defense refinements and the absence of new high-risk objects sustain trader consensus around the strong “No” odds, with resolution hinging on NASA JPL fireball records through year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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