**No at 96.3% reflects the low base rate of 100-kiloton-scale airbursts and the absence of any identified near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision courses this year.** NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office and CNEOS monitoring, including Sentry and Scout systems, have catalogued no objects in the ~10–20 meter range capable of releasing that energy (roughly equivalent to a small nuclear yield) during 2026. Historical data from satellite and infrasound networks show such events occur only a few times per century on average, with none recorded in recent years at that threshold. While undetected small bodies could theoretically strike without prior warning, the statistical rarity—around 5% or lower annually—supports the strong market consensus. Remaining uncertainty stems mainly from the possibility of an untracked impactor in the final months of the year, though ongoing surveys continue to reduce that window.