The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes on the moment magnitude scale drives the 97% market-implied probability of no such event before 2027. Only five have occurred globally since 1900, with recurrence intervals on capable subduction zone megathrusts typically spanning centuries, according to paleoseismic and USGS data. With roughly 15 months remaining and no current elevated seismic activity or foreshock patterns detected by global monitoring networks, trader consensus reflects the low baseline rate of one to three such events per century. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include an unanticipated full-margin rupture in a high-strain subduction zone like Cascadia, though scientific forecasts assign only modest probabilities even over longer horizons and emphasize inherent uncertainty in short-term prediction.