Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСтихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Стихийное бедствие в 2026 году?
Да
13% вероятность
$246,041 Объем
$246,041 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
13% вероятность
$246,041 Объем
$246,041 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Объем
$246,041Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Объем
$246,041Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring an 87.5% implied probability of "No" for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 stems primarily from the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through September. NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data show suppressed Atlantic activity amid persistent wind shear and neutral ENSO conditions, while USGS records confirm peak seismic events this year, including Venezuela’s doublet and Indonesia’s 7.7, have remained below the resolution threshold. Historical baselines indicate such extremes occur infrequently, and current model runs project limited intensification potential or major seismic shifts through year-end, though late-season hurricane activity or an unexpected large quake could still alter outcomes before December.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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