NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВысадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Высадка человека на Луну в 2026 году?
Да
<1% вероятность
$1,968,136 Объем
$1,968,136 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
<1% вероятность
$1,968,136 Объем
$1,968,136 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Объем
$1,968,136Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,968,136Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...NASA's Artemis program has shifted the first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV in 2028 after Artemis II's successful 2026 flyby, with Artemis III now a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration of commercial Human Landing Systems. Delays in SpaceX Starship and Blue Origin Blue Moon development, including technical issues and a May 2026 New Glenn explosion, have pushed timelines despite ongoing hardware progress and contracts. With only months left in 2026 and no missions positioned for a surface landing, traders see near-certain "No" odds. Unexpected private accelerations or major breakthroughs could theoretically intervene, though development and regulatory hurdles make such shifts improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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