OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1,5Т+ 74.0%
1,25–1,5 трлн 12%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 5.5%
1–1,25 трлн 5.0%
$278,964 Объем
$278,964 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
<1%
500–750 млрд
1%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
3%
1–1,25 трлн
5%
1,25–1,5 трлн
12%
1,5Т+
74%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
6%
1,5Т+ 74.0%
1,25–1,5 трлн 12%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года 5.5%
1–1,25 трлн 5.0%
$278,964 Объем
$278,964 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
<500 млрд
$23,451 Объем
<1%
500–750 млрд
$22,615 Объем
1%
750 млрд – 1 трлн
$59,010 Объем
3%
1–1,25 трлн
$35,307 Объем
5%
1,25–1,5 трлн
$25,159 Объем
12%
1,5Т+
$60,057 Объем
74%
Без IPO до 31 декабря 2027 года
$53,365 Объем
6%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Открытие рынка: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Объем
$278,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Объем
$278,964Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s decision to rule out a 2026 IPO, with CEO Sam Altman citing AI safety and alignment priorities as making a public listing “ill-advised,” has reinforced trader expectations for a 2027 debut at an elevated valuation. The company’s March 2026 private round closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation following a $122 billion raise, yet Altman has treated anything below $1 trillion as a nonstarter amid continued revenue expansion from ChatGPT subscriptions and enterprise contracts. This stance, combined with the absence of pre-IPO investor meetings and lessons from SpaceX’s post-listing volatility, supports the 74% implied probability on a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion by embedding assumptions of further growth in ARR and sustained AI-sector multiples before the first trading day. Upcoming catalysts include any public S-1 release or updates on compute commitments that could refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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