Google's Gemini series trails the HLE leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65% on expert-authored questions spanning math, physics, and other domains. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7–3.8 Flash variants post 45–48% in text-only or closed-book evaluations, reflecting gains in multi-step reasoning but persistent gaps versus Claude on specialized knowledge tasks. Traders price in continued Google release cadence—including Gemini 4 pre-training and Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities—against the benchmark's remaining headroom before year-end saturation. Key catalysts include any verified model updates or leaderboard shifts by December 31 that could push a Gemini variant past 50–55% implied probability thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамый высокий балл Google Gemini на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
Самый высокий балл Google Gemini на последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году?
$92,724 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
50%+
90%
55%+
42%
60%+
21%
65%+
12%
70%+
4%
$92,724 Объем
50%+
$31,006 Объем
90%
55%+
$36,413 Объем
42%
60%+
$15,691 Объем
21%
65%+
$5,256 Объем
12%
70%+
$4,358 Объем
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's Gemini series trails the HLE leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65% on expert-authored questions spanning math, physics, and other domains. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7–3.8 Flash variants post 45–48% in text-only or closed-book evaluations, reflecting gains in multi-step reasoning but persistent gaps versus Claude on specialized knowledge tasks. Traders price in continued Google release cadence—including Gemini 4 pre-training and Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities—against the benchmark's remaining headroom before year-end saturation. Key catalysts include any verified model updates or leaderboard shifts by December 31 that could push a Gemini variant past 50–55% implied probability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
Объем
$92,724Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google's Gemini series trails the HLE leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65% on expert-authored questions spanning math, physics, and other domains. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7–3.8 Flash variants post 45–48% in text-only or closed-book evaluations, reflecting gains in multi-step reasoning but persistent gaps versus Claude on specialized knowledge tasks. Traders price in continued Google release cadence—including Gemini 4 pre-training and Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities—against the benchmark's remaining headroom before year-end saturation. Key catalysts include any verified model updates or leaderboard shifts by December 31 that could push a Gemini variant past 50–55% implied probability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$92,724Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Google's Gemini series trails the HLE leaderboard, where Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 lead at 59–65% on expert-authored questions spanning math, physics, and other domains. Recent Gemini 3.1 Pro and 3.7–3.8 Flash variants post 45–48% in text-only or closed-book evaluations, reflecting gains in multi-step reasoning but persistent gaps versus Claude on specialized knowledge tasks. Traders price in continued Google release cadence—including Gemini 4 pre-training and Flash iterations targeting agentic capabilities—against the benchmark's remaining headroom before year-end saturation. Key catalysts include any verified model updates or leaderboard shifts by December 31 that could push a Gemini variant past 50–55% implied probability thresholds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
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Да
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78%
Да
Будет ли максимальный результат, достигнутый моделью Meta на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, 55% или выше?
25%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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