Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure imposing a legal duty of care on frontier model developers have advanced in recent weeks following warnings from former Anthropic staff about catastrophic risks, yet key disagreements persist over liability standards, preemption of state laws, and enforcement mechanisms. As of mid-September 2026, the leading draft led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz remains unfinalized in committee, with limited session days left before the November midterms and December adjournment. Multiple House proposals on testing, incident reporting, and shutdown authority have cleared initial committees but face uncertain floor prospects in a divided Congress. State-level frontier AI rules in California, New York, and Illinois continue to fill the gap while federal consensus lags. These procedural and calendar constraints underpin trader expectations that no qualifying federal bill will reach enactment before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСША введут в действие законопроект о безопасности ИИ до 2027 года?
США введут в действие законопроект о безопасности ИИ до 2027 года?
Да
19% вероятность
$103,265 Объем
$103,265 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
19% вероятность
$103,265 Объем
$103,265 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure imposing a legal duty of care on frontier model developers have advanced in recent weeks following warnings from former Anthropic staff about catastrophic risks, yet key disagreements persist over liability standards, preemption of state laws, and enforcement mechanisms. As of mid-September 2026, the leading draft led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz remains unfinalized in committee, with limited session days left before the November midterms and December adjournment. Multiple House proposals on testing, incident reporting, and shutdown authority have cleared initial committees but face uncertain floor prospects in a divided Congress. State-level frontier AI rules in California, New York, and Illinois continue to fill the gap while federal consensus lags. These procedural and calendar constraints underpin trader expectations that no qualifying federal bill will reach enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Объем
$103,265Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure imposing a legal duty of care on frontier model developers have advanced in recent weeks following warnings from former Anthropic staff about catastrophic risks, yet key disagreements persist over liability standards, preemption of state laws, and enforcement mechanisms. As of mid-September 2026, the leading draft led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz remains unfinalized in committee, with limited session days left before the November midterms and December adjournment. Multiple House proposals on testing, incident reporting, and shutdown authority have cleared initial committees but face uncertain floor prospects in a divided Congress. State-level frontier AI rules in California, New York, and Illinois continue to fill the gap while federal consensus lags. These procedural and calendar constraints underpin trader expectations that no qualifying federal bill will reach enactment before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$103,265Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure imposing a legal duty of care on frontier model developers have advanced in recent weeks following warnings from former Anthropic staff about catastrophic risks, yet key disagreements persist over liability standards, preemption of state laws, and enforcement mechanisms. As of mid-September 2026, the leading draft led by Senators Klobuchar, Thune, and Cruz remains unfinalized in committee, with limited session days left before the November midterms and December adjournment. Multiple House proposals on testing, incident reporting, and shutdown authority have cleared initial committees but face uncertain floor prospects in a divided Congress. State-level frontier AI rules in California, New York, and Illinois continue to fill the gap while federal consensus lags. These procedural and calendar constraints underpin trader expectations that no qualifying federal bill will reach enactment before 2027.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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