Ongoing gray-zone coercion by China, including sustained coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA air activity around the island, has not escalated into direct military confrontation as of September 2026. Taiwan's defense modernization efforts, such as recent joint drills incorporating attack drones, anti-ship missiles, and HIMARS systems, alongside integration of coast guard assets, reflect preparations that reinforce deterrence. Assessments from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense highlight China's focus on blockade scenarios and encirclement tactics rather than immediate amphibious operations, citing capability gaps. Diplomatic channels, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, further support trader consensus that a major clash remains improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
6% вероятность
$3,423,701 Объем
$3,423,701 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$3,423,701 Объем
$3,423,701 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone coercion by China, including sustained coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA air activity around the island, has not escalated into direct military confrontation as of September 2026. Taiwan's defense modernization efforts, such as recent joint drills incorporating attack drones, anti-ship missiles, and HIMARS systems, alongside integration of coast guard assets, reflect preparations that reinforce deterrence. Assessments from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense highlight China's focus on blockade scenarios and encirclement tactics rather than immediate amphibious operations, citing capability gaps. Diplomatic channels, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, further support trader consensus that a major clash remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Объем
$3,423,701Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing gray-zone coercion by China, including sustained coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA air activity around the island, has not escalated into direct military confrontation as of September 2026. Taiwan's defense modernization efforts, such as recent joint drills incorporating attack drones, anti-ship missiles, and HIMARS systems, alongside integration of coast guard assets, reflect preparations that reinforce deterrence. Assessments from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense highlight China's focus on blockade scenarios and encirclement tactics rather than immediate amphibious operations, citing capability gaps. Diplomatic channels, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, further support trader consensus that a major clash remains improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$3,423,701Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Ongoing gray-zone coercion by China, including sustained coast guard patrols east of Taiwan and reduced but persistent PLA air activity around the island, has not escalated into direct military confrontation as of September 2026. Taiwan's defense modernization efforts, such as recent joint drills incorporating attack drones, anti-ship missiles, and HIMARS systems, alongside integration of coast guard assets, reflect preparations that reinforce deterrence. Assessments from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense highlight China's focus on blockade scenarios and encirclement tactics rather than immediate amphibious operations, citing capability gaps. Diplomatic channels, including a planned Trump-Xi summit, further support trader consensus that a major clash remains improbable before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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