**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoConflito militar Israel x Turquia antes de 2027?
Conflito militar Israel x Turquia antes de 2027?
Sim
14% chance
$428,469 Vol.
$428,469 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
14% chance
$428,469 Vol.
$428,469 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$428,469Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$428,469Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 86.5% probability to no direct Israel-Turkey military clash before 2027 primarily because sustained U.S. mediation and explicit de-escalation signals have contained the August 2026 Syria tensions.** Following Israel's airstrikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase—intended to block potential Turkish troop or air-defense deployment—both governments reiterated red lines while avoiding direct confrontation, with Washington establishing deconfliction channels involving Israel, Turkey, and Syria. Turkish officials denied deployment plans, and Israeli statements emphasized deterrence without seeking escalation. Ongoing rivalry over Syrian influence, including Turkish control of territory and Israeli concerns about bases near its borders, continues, yet NATO membership, shared U.S. ties, and back-channel diplomacy via Azerbaijan have preserved restraint. Recent diplomatic appointments and public statements from both sides further reinforce the market's assessment that proxy competition is more likely than open conflict in the short term.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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