Recent Israeli polls project Ra'am receiving 4-6 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, translating to roughly 3.3-5% of the national vote under the 3.25% threshold. This positioning reflects stable Arab-party fragmentation, with Ra'am averaging around 5 seats across multiple surveys from mid-September while the reduced Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) polls higher at 7-8 seats. Trader consensus in the 4-4.75% bin aligns with these aggregates, driven by consistent historical performance near 4% in 2022 and limited evidence of major shifts from Ra'am's August technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz. Key variables include Arab voter turnout, competition for the same electorate, and any late consolidation effects from the surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4-4,75% 40%
4,75-5,5% 19%
3,25-4% 18%
<3,25% 15%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
15%
3,25-4%
15%
4-4,75%
44%
4,75-5,5%
15%
5,5%+
13%
4-4,75% 40%
4,75-5,5% 19%
3,25-4% 18%
<3,25% 15%
NOVO
NOVO
30 nov 2026
<3,25%
$344 Vol.
15%
3,25-4%
$293 Vol.
15%
4-4,75%
$1,152 Vol.
44%
4,75-5,5%
$207 Vol.
15%
5,5%+
$191 Vol.
13%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls project Ra'am receiving 4-6 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, translating to roughly 3.3-5% of the national vote under the 3.25% threshold. This positioning reflects stable Arab-party fragmentation, with Ra'am averaging around 5 seats across multiple surveys from mid-September while the reduced Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) polls higher at 7-8 seats. Trader consensus in the 4-4.75% bin aligns with these aggregates, driven by consistent historical performance near 4% in 2022 and limited evidence of major shifts from Ra'am's August technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz. Key variables include Arab voter turnout, competition for the same electorate, and any late consolidation effects from the surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Mercado Aberto: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$2,188Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent Israeli polls project Ra'am receiving 4-6 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, translating to roughly 3.3-5% of the national vote under the 3.25% threshold. This positioning reflects stable Arab-party fragmentation, with Ra'am averaging around 5 seats across multiple surveys from mid-September while the reduced Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) polls higher at 7-8 seats. Trader consensus in the 4-4.75% bin aligns with these aggregates, driven by consistent historical performance near 4% in 2022 and limited evidence of major shifts from Ra'am's August technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz. Key variables include Arab voter turnout, competition for the same electorate, and any late consolidation effects from the surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$2,188Data de Término
27 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Israeli polls project Ra'am receiving 4-6 seats in the October 27 Knesset election, translating to roughly 3.3-5% of the national vote under the 3.25% threshold. This positioning reflects stable Arab-party fragmentation, with Ra'am averaging around 5 seats across multiple surveys from mid-September while the reduced Joint List (Hadash-Ta'al-Balad) polls higher at 7-8 seats. Trader consensus in the 4-4.75% bin aligns with these aggregates, driven by consistent historical performance near 4% in 2022 and limited evidence of major shifts from Ra'am's August technical bloc with former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz. Key variables include Arab voter turnout, competition for the same electorate, and any late consolidation effects from the surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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