The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role with rapid institutional continuity and minimal reported defections in security forces. Intermittent strikes and sanctions have strained the economy and prompted crackdowns involving arrests and executions, yet protests have been contained without triggering widespread elite fragmentation or a viable opposition coalition. As of September 2026, diplomatic channels via mediators like Qatar continue amid ongoing tensions, with Tehran signaling conditions for de-escalation rather than internal breakdown. This track record of adaptation and control has shifted market-implied probabilities sharply lower since earlier 2026 peaks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
O regime iraniano cairá antes de 2027?
Sim
7% chance
$26,178,506 Vol.
$26,178,506 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$26,178,506 Vol.
$26,178,506 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role with rapid institutional continuity and minimal reported defections in security forces. Intermittent strikes and sanctions have strained the economy and prompted crackdowns involving arrests and executions, yet protests have been contained without triggering widespread elite fragmentation or a viable opposition coalition. As of September 2026, diplomatic channels via mediators like Qatar continue amid ongoing tensions, with Tehran signaling conditions for de-escalation rather than internal breakdown. This track record of adaptation and control has shifted market-implied probabilities sharply lower since earlier 2026 peaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$26,178,506Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role with rapid institutional continuity and minimal reported defections in security forces. Intermittent strikes and sanctions have strained the economy and prompted crackdowns involving arrests and executions, yet protests have been contained without triggering widespread elite fragmentation or a viable opposition coalition. As of September 2026, diplomatic channels via mediators like Qatar continue amid ongoing tensions, with Tehran signaling conditions for de-escalation rather than internal breakdown. This track record of adaptation and control has shifted market-implied probabilities sharply lower since earlier 2026 peaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,178,506Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through leadership decapitation, sustained external military pressure, and domestic unrest underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role with rapid institutional continuity and minimal reported defections in security forces. Intermittent strikes and sanctions have strained the economy and prompted crackdowns involving arrests and executions, yet protests have been contained without triggering widespread elite fragmentation or a viable opposition coalition. As of September 2026, diplomatic channels via mediators like Qatar continue amid ongoing tensions, with Tehran signaling conditions for de-escalation rather than internal breakdown. This track record of adaptation and control has shifted market-implied probabilities sharply lower since earlier 2026 peaks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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