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icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

icon for Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?
Economia·Taxas Fed

Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?

$25,183 Vol.

30 dez 2026
Polymarket

$25,183 Vol.

Polymarket

Abaixo de 4,50%

$1,495 Vol.

72%

Abaixo de 4,45%

$2,866 Vol.

65%

Abaixo de 4,40%

$1,894 Vol.

43%

Abaixo de 4,35%

$3,226 Vol.

35%

Abaixo de 4,30%

$2,601 Vol.

32%

Abaixo de 4,25%

$834 Vol.

19%

Abaixo de 4,20%

$3,973 Vol.

11%

Abaixo de 4,10%

$6,694 Vol.

12%

Abaixo de 4,00%

$1,600 Vol.

9%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$25,183
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).Recent strength in U.S. labor market data and persistent core inflation readings have pushed the 5-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.86% as of mid-September 2026, up sharply from sub-4% levels earlier in the year. Hawkish Federal Reserve communications, including at Jackson Hole, alongside expectations of steady or higher policy rates have lifted both real yields and term premium. Heavy Treasury supply amid elevated fiscal deficits and corporate issuance has added further upward pressure. Market-implied odds for near-term rate hikes have increased, reflecting resilient growth and geopolitical risks to energy prices. Lower yields before 2027 would likely require clearer evidence of disinflation or economic cooling sufficient to shift the Fed toward easing, with upcoming CPI releases and FOMC decisions serving as key near-term catalysts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Volume
$25,183
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 72%, followed by "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 65%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 72¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" has generated $25.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Sep 2, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" is "Abaixo de 4,50%" at 72%, meaning the market assigns a 72% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Abaixo de 4,45%" at 65%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quão baixo será o rendimento do Tesouro a 5 anos antes de 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.