Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhich company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of October?
Anthropic 72%
Google 11.3%
OpenAI 7%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,155 Wol.
$38,155 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
72%
11%
OpenAI
7%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meta
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 72%
Google 11.3%
OpenAI 7%
Alibaba 1.0%
$38,155 Wol.
$38,155 Wol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$15,532 Wol.
72%
$1,765 Wol.
11%
OpenAI
$6,905 Wol.
7%
Alibaba
$982 Wol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,002 Wol.
1%
Meta
$1,105 Wol.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,132 Wol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$964 Wol.
<1%
Z.ai
$942 Wol.
<1%
ByteDance
$753 Wol.
<1%
Mistral
$778 Wol.
<1%
Tencent
$1,033 Wol.
<1%
Baidu
$694 Wol.
<1%
Nvidia
$492 Wol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$745 Wol.
<1%
MiniMax
$653 Wol.
<1%
Meituan
$649 Wol.
<1%
Amazon
$773 Wol.
<1%
StepFun
$662 Wol.
<1%
Microsoft
$593 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Rynek otwarty: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$38,155Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Wolumen
$38,155Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's dominant 71.5% implied probability stems from its Claude Opus and Fable series models consistently leading Text Arena math leaderboards through September 2026, with top Elo ratings around 1537 in crowd-sourced evaluations of mathematical reasoning, problem-solving, and competition-style tasks. Recent releases have demonstrated strong capabilities on benchmarks like AIME, HMMT, and frontier math sets, outpacing rivals in human preference arenas focused on step-by-step explanations and novel problems. OpenAI and Google trail at 7% and 10.9% respectively due to competitive but secondary showings on MATH-500 and FrontierMath, while Chinese labs like Moonshot and Alibaba register minimal traction in Western arena data. With no major model launches imminent before late October, trader consensus reflects Anthropic's current edge in specialized math arenas rather than broader capability metrics.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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