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Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

icon for Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?
Gospodarka·Stawki Fed

Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?

0 (0 pb) 96.0%

1 (25 pb) 1.2%

2 (50 pb) <1%

3 (75 pb) <1%

Polymarket

$53,135,480 Wol.

0 (0 pb) 96.0%

1 (25 pb) 1.2%

2 (50 pb) <1%

3 (75 pb) <1%

Polymarket

$53,135,480 Wol.

0 (0 pb)

$8,471,583 Wol.

96%

1 (25 pb)

$3,266,640 Wol.

1%

2 (50 pb)

$3,246,553 Wol.

1%

3 (75 pb)

$2,928,629 Wol.

<1%

4 (100 pb)

$2,729,970 Wol.

<1%

5 (125 pb)

$2,988,691 Wol.

<1%

6 (150 pb)

$4,222,076 Wol.

<1%

7 (175 pb)

$3,523,869 Wol.

<1%

8 (200 pb)

$3,292,613 Wol.

<1%

9 (225 pb)

$4,286,511 Wol.

<1%

10 (250 pb)

$4,951,980 Wol.

<1%

11 (275 pb)

$5,268,834 Wol.

<1%

12+ (300+ pb)

$3,957,532 Wol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with a resilient economy and solid labor market, underpins the 96% implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026.** Following the September 16 FOMC meeting, policymakers hiked the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range—the first increase since 2023—and revised median projections to hold the policy rate at 4.1% through year-end 2026 and 2027. August PCE inflation near 3.6%, with core measures still elevated, and unemployment steady near 4.1% have reinforced the hawkish stance. Traders see limited scope for easing absent a sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data. A string of cooler inflation prints or weakening employment could still reopen the door to cuts, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$53,135,480
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with a resilient economy and solid labor market, underpins the 96% implied probability of zero rate cuts in 2026.** Following the September 16 FOMC meeting, policymakers hiked the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range—the first increase since 2023—and revised median projections to hold the policy rate at 4.1% through year-end 2026 and 2027. August PCE inflation near 3.6%, with core measures still elevated, and unemployment steady near 4.1% have reinforced the hawkish stance. Traders see limited scope for easing absent a sharp deterioration in growth or inflation data. A string of cooler inflation prints or weakening employment could still reopen the door to cuts, though such outcomes appear unlikely given current momentum.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Wolumen
$53,135,480
Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x2F5e3684c...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 13 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "0 (0 pb)" z 96%, za nim "1 (25 pb)" z 1%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 96¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 96% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

Na dzień dzisiejszy "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" wygenerował $53.1 million łącznego wolumenu od uruchomienia rynku Sep 29, 2025. Ten poziom aktywności handlowej odzwierciedla silne zaangażowanie społeczności Polymarket i pomaga zapewnić, że bieżące kursy są informowane przez głęboką pulę uczestników rynku. Możesz śledzić ruchy cen na żywo i handlować na dowolny wynik bezpośrednio na tej stronie.

Aby handlować na "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?", przeglądaj 13 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" jest "0 (0 pb)" z 96%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 96% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "1 (25 pb)" z 1%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Ile obniżek stawek Fed w 2026 r.?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.