No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5-kiloton or greater bolide through mid-September 2026, consistent with NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data showing only smaller events such as the March Ohio fireball at roughly 0.25 kt. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose collision risk at this energy scale, per CNEOS and ESA monitoring, while historical flux models indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt roughly annually but with high variance depending on detection over oceans or remote areas. Recent close approaches remain well below thresholds, and resolution hinges on year-end JPL updates without evidence of an undetected large airburst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
25% szansa
$313,836 Wol.
$313,836 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
25% szansa
$313,836 Wol.
$313,836 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5-kiloton or greater bolide through mid-September 2026, consistent with NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data showing only smaller events such as the March Ohio fireball at roughly 0.25 kt. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose collision risk at this energy scale, per CNEOS and ESA monitoring, while historical flux models indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt roughly annually but with high variance depending on detection over oceans or remote areas. Recent close approaches remain well below thresholds, and resolution hinges on year-end JPL updates without evidence of an undetected large airburst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$313,836Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5-kiloton or greater bolide through mid-September 2026, consistent with NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data showing only smaller events such as the March Ohio fireball at roughly 0.25 kt. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose collision risk at this energy scale, per CNEOS and ESA monitoring, while historical flux models indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt roughly annually but with high variance depending on detection over oceans or remote areas. Recent close approaches remain well below thresholds, and resolution hinges on year-end JPL updates without evidence of an undetected large airburst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$313,836Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...No at 75% reflects the absence of any confirmed 5-kiloton or greater bolide through mid-September 2026, consistent with NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data showing only smaller events such as the March Ohio fireball at roughly 0.25 kt. No catalogued near-Earth objects pose collision risk at this energy scale, per CNEOS and ESA monitoring, while historical flux models indicate meter-scale impactors reach 5 kt roughly annually but with high variance depending on detection over oceans or remote areas. Recent close approaches remain well below thresholds, and resolution hinges on year-end JPL updates without evidence of an undetected large airburst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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