Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 24 confirmed neuroinvasive cases and 1,737 positive mosquito pools reported by mid-September 2026, forms the core driver behind the near-even market split between 50 or more cases (43%) and 35–49 cases (42%). Record mosquito positivity across all boroughs, compared with prior years, reflects warmer temperatures and extended transmission windows that boost Culex vector abundance and viral amplification in avian reservoirs, consistent with CDC and NYC Health Department surveillance trends showing rising averages from 16–31 neuroinvasive cases annually in recent years. Peak activity typically runs through October, leaving room for additional reports that could push totals higher, though variable late-season weather and control measures introduce uncertainty in final counts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
50 or more 43.5%
35 to 49 43%
20 to 34 5%
Fewer than 20 1.1%
$17,434 Wol.
$17,434 Wol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
1%
20 to 34
5%
35 to 49
43%
50 or more
43%
50 or more 43.5%
35 to 49 43%
20 to 34 5%
Fewer than 20 1.1%
$17,434 Wol.
$17,434 Wol.
Mar 31, 2027
Fewer than 20
$4,391 Wol.
1%
20 to 34
$8,660 Wol.
5%
35 to 49
$3,069 Wol.
43%
50 or more
$1,315 Wol.
43%
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 24 confirmed neuroinvasive cases and 1,737 positive mosquito pools reported by mid-September 2026, forms the core driver behind the near-even market split between 50 or more cases (43%) and 35–49 cases (42%). Record mosquito positivity across all boroughs, compared with prior years, reflects warmer temperatures and extended transmission windows that boost Culex vector abundance and viral amplification in avian reservoirs, consistent with CDC and NYC Health Department surveillance trends showing rising averages from 16–31 neuroinvasive cases annually in recent years. Peak activity typically runs through October, leaving room for additional reports that could push totals higher, though variable late-season weather and control measures introduce uncertainty in final counts.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,434Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 24 confirmed neuroinvasive cases and 1,737 positive mosquito pools reported by mid-September 2026, forms the core driver behind the near-even market split between 50 or more cases (43%) and 35–49 cases (42%). Record mosquito positivity across all boroughs, compared with prior years, reflects warmer temperatures and extended transmission windows that boost Culex vector abundance and viral amplification in avian reservoirs, consistent with CDC and NYC Health Department surveillance trends showing rising averages from 16–31 neuroinvasive cases annually in recent years. Peak activity typically runs through October, leaving room for additional reports that could push totals higher, though variable late-season weather and control measures introduce uncertainty in final counts.
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.
The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure.
If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.
If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.
Wolumen
$17,434Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 5:18 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.pageRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated West Nile virus activity in New York City this season, with 24 confirmed neuroinvasive cases and 1,737 positive mosquito pools reported by mid-September 2026, forms the core driver behind the near-even market split between 50 or more cases (43%) and 35–49 cases (42%). Record mosquito positivity across all boroughs, compared with prior years, reflects warmer temperatures and extended transmission windows that boost Culex vector abundance and viral amplification in avian reservoirs, consistent with CDC and NYC Health Department surveillance trends showing rising averages from 16–31 neuroinvasive cases annually in recent years. Peak activity typically runs through October, leaving room for additional reports that could push totals higher, though variable late-season weather and control measures introduce uncertainty in final counts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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