Persistent drought across the Danube basin has driven record-low water levels through early September 2026, with gauges in Budapest reaching historic lows near 1 cm amid reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures. This summer-long dry spell has kept navigation restricted and delayed any return to normal hydrological conditions. Upcoming rainfall forecasts for the upper catchment offer the main near-term catalyst for recovery, yet timing, volume, and distribution remain uncertain, balancing trader probabilities across mid-to-late September, October, and beyond November 1. Further dry weather would favor later resolutions, while substantial basin-wide precipitation could accelerate a rebound within the next two weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhen will the Danube River return to normal levels?
When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
September 15 - 30, 2026 30%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 29.9%
October 1 - 31, 2026 27%
September 1 - 14, 2026 9.6%
$31,253 Wol.
$31,253 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 1 - 14, 2026
10%
September 15 - 30, 2026
30%
October 1 - 31, 2026
27%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
30%
September 15 - 30, 2026 30%
Does not return by November 1, 2026 29.9%
October 1 - 31, 2026 27%
September 1 - 14, 2026 9.6%
$31,253 Wol.
$31,253 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
September 1 - 14, 2026
$13,063 Wol.
10%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$4,288 Wol.
30%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$5,392 Wol.
27%
Does not return by November 1, 2026
$7,095 Wol.
30%
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent drought across the Danube basin has driven record-low water levels through early September 2026, with gauges in Budapest reaching historic lows near 1 cm amid reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures. This summer-long dry spell has kept navigation restricted and delayed any return to normal hydrological conditions. Upcoming rainfall forecasts for the upper catchment offer the main near-term catalyst for recovery, yet timing, volume, and distribution remain uncertain, balancing trader probabilities across mid-to-late September, October, and beyond November 1. Further dry weather would favor later resolutions, while substantial basin-wide precipitation could accelerate a rebound within the next two weeks.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ET
Wolumen
$31,253Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRORozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Persistent drought across the Danube basin has driven record-low water levels through early September 2026, with gauges in Budapest reaching historic lows near 1 cm amid reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures. This summer-long dry spell has kept navigation restricted and delayed any return to normal hydrological conditions. Upcoming rainfall forecasts for the upper catchment offer the main near-term catalyst for recovery, yet timing, volume, and distribution remain uncertain, balancing trader probabilities across mid-to-late September, October, and beyond November 1. Further dry weather would favor later resolutions, while substantial basin-wide precipitation could accelerate a rebound within the next two weeks.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$31,253Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 10, 2026, 11:36 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRORozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Persistent drought across the Danube basin has driven record-low water levels through early September 2026, with gauges in Budapest reaching historic lows near 1 cm amid reduced precipitation and elevated temperatures. This summer-long dry spell has kept navigation restricted and delayed any return to normal hydrological conditions. Upcoming rainfall forecasts for the upper catchment offer the main near-term catalyst for recovery, yet timing, volume, and distribution remain uncertain, balancing trader probabilities across mid-to-late September, October, and beyond November 1. Further dry weather would favor later resolutions, while substantial basin-wide precipitation could accelerate a rebound within the next two weeks.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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