Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and ESA continues to show no asteroids or meteoroids on trajectories capable of delivering 10kt or greater impact energy in 2026. Risk lists updated through mid-September list only distant, low-probability approaches years or decades ahead, while all recent and forecasted close approaches involve small objects that either miss Earth entirely or produce negligible airbursts. Historical flux models indicate events at this energy threshold occur on multi-decade to century timescales, with the last comparable incident in 2013 well below the threshold. Ongoing surveys and refined orbital data reinforce trader consensus around an 89% implied probability for no such strike, though last-minute discoveries of small, fast-moving bodies remain a minor residual uncertainty before year-end.