Traders assign a 97% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 because great events on the moment magnitude scale remain rare, with global rates estimated at roughly three per century based on instrumental and paleoseismic records. The most recent M9+ quake occurred in 2011 off Tohoku, Japan, and the 2025 Kamchatka M8.8 event fell short of the threshold despite occurring in a high-strain subduction zone. USGS data show M8+ quakes average about one annually while M9+ occurrences cluster far less frequently, often tied to long recurrence intervals on major megathrust faults. Short-term prediction remains impossible, with probabilities derived from historical averages rather than real-time precursors. A realistic shift could occur only if an unexpected full-margin rupture developed on a prepared segment such as Cascadia or southern Chile within the narrow remaining window, though current seismic monitoring shows no such acceleration.