**Ongoing severe low-water conditions on the Rhine, driven by a prolonged drought and below-normal precipitation across the catchment, position October as the leading window for the Kaub gauge to first reach or exceed the 77 cm GlW threshold.** As of mid-September 2026, the Kaub reading sits at 25 cm—near record lows—with only marginal gains from recent rain in southern Germany. Forecasts from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology and seasonal models indicate limited near-term relief, as full recovery typically requires sustained autumn precipitation and cooler temperatures rather than isolated showers. September probabilities remain constrained by the short remaining window and persistent dryness, while October benefits from higher historical recovery odds and longer lead time for seasonal shifts. Persistent dry patterns could extend the timeline beyond October, consistent with trader weighting of the “no return before November” outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWhen will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
When will the Rhine River return to normal levels?
October 1 - 31, 2026 53%
No return before November 1, 2026 27%
September 15 - 30, 2026 21%
Before September 15, 2026 2.8%
$22,482 Wol.
$22,482 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
3%
September 15 - 30, 2026
21%
October 1 - 31, 2026
53%
No return before November 1, 2026
27%
October 1 - 31, 2026 53%
No return before November 1, 2026 27%
September 15 - 30, 2026 21%
Before September 15, 2026 2.8%
$22,482 Wol.
$22,482 Wol.
Sep 15, 2026
Before September 15, 2026
$7,432 Wol.
3%
September 15 - 30, 2026
$5,952 Wol.
21%
October 1 - 31, 2026
$5,957 Wol.
53%
No return before November 1, 2026
$3,141 Wol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).**Ongoing severe low-water conditions on the Rhine, driven by a prolonged drought and below-normal precipitation across the catchment, position October as the leading window for the Kaub gauge to first reach or exceed the 77 cm GlW threshold.** As of mid-September 2026, the Kaub reading sits at 25 cm—near record lows—with only marginal gains from recent rain in southern Germany. Forecasts from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology and seasonal models indicate limited near-term relief, as full recovery typically requires sustained autumn precipitation and cooler temperatures rather than isolated showers. September probabilities remain constrained by the short remaining window and persistent dryness, while October benefits from higher historical recovery odds and longer lead time for seasonal shifts. Persistent dry patterns could extend the timeline beyond October, consistent with trader weighting of the “no return before November” outcome.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Rynek otwarty: Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ET
Wolumen
$22,482Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).**Ongoing severe low-water conditions on the Rhine, driven by a prolonged drought and below-normal precipitation across the catchment, position October as the leading window for the Kaub gauge to first reach or exceed the 77 cm GlW threshold.** As of mid-September 2026, the Kaub reading sits at 25 cm—near record lows—with only marginal gains from recent rain in southern Germany. Forecasts from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology and seasonal models indicate limited near-term relief, as full recovery typically requires sustained autumn precipitation and cooler temperatures rather than isolated showers. September probabilities remain constrained by the short remaining window and persistent dryness, while October benefits from higher historical recovery odds and longer lead time for seasonal shifts. Persistent dry patterns could extend the timeline beyond October, consistent with trader weighting of the “no return before November” outcome.
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline.
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026."
The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Wolumen
$22,482Data zakończenia
Nov 1, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 6, 2026, 12:26 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100Rozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Ongoing severe low-water conditions on the Rhine, driven by a prolonged drought and below-normal precipitation across the catchment, position October as the leading window for the Kaub gauge to first reach or exceed the 77 cm GlW threshold.** As of mid-September 2026, the Kaub reading sits at 25 cm—near record lows—with only marginal gains from recent rain in southern Germany. Forecasts from the German Federal Institute of Hydrology and seasonal models indicate limited near-term relief, as full recovery typically requires sustained autumn precipitation and cooler temperatures rather than isolated showers. September probabilities remain constrained by the short remaining window and persistent dryness, while October benefits from higher historical recovery odds and longer lead time for seasonal shifts. Persistent dry patterns could extend the timeline beyond October, consistent with trader weighting of the “no return before November” outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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