Trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects the event's extreme rarity, with NASA’s CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying impacts since comprehensive monitoring began and the most recent comparable event (Chelyabinsk) releasing only ~0.44 megatons in 2013. Planetary defense networks detect no large near-Earth objects on intercept trajectories for the remainder of the year, and annual base rates place such strikes at roughly 0.2%. While an undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, improved sensor coverage and strict resolution criteria tied to verified energy thresholds make an upset unlikely before December 31. No major observational updates have altered this outlook in recent months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% szansa
$117,067 Wol.
$117,067 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
2% szansa
$117,067 Wol.
$117,067 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects the event's extreme rarity, with NASA’s CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying impacts since comprehensive monitoring began and the most recent comparable event (Chelyabinsk) releasing only ~0.44 megatons in 2013. Planetary defense networks detect no large near-Earth objects on intercept trajectories for the remainder of the year, and annual base rates place such strikes at roughly 0.2%. While an undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, improved sensor coverage and strict resolution criteria tied to verified energy thresholds make an upset unlikely before December 31. No major observational updates have altered this outlook in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$117,067Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects the event's extreme rarity, with NASA’s CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying impacts since comprehensive monitoring began and the most recent comparable event (Chelyabinsk) releasing only ~0.44 megatons in 2013. Planetary defense networks detect no large near-Earth objects on intercept trajectories for the remainder of the year, and annual base rates place such strikes at roughly 0.2%. While an undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, improved sensor coverage and strict resolution criteria tied to verified energy thresholds make an upset unlikely before December 31. No major observational updates have altered this outlook in recent months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Wolumen
$117,067Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on "No" at 98.5% for a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 reflects the event's extreme rarity, with NASA’s CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying impacts since comprehensive monitoring began and the most recent comparable event (Chelyabinsk) releasing only ~0.44 megatons in 2013. Planetary defense networks detect no large near-Earth objects on intercept trajectories for the remainder of the year, and annual base rates place such strikes at roughly 0.2%. While an undetected bolide remains theoretically possible, improved sensor coverage and strict resolution criteria tied to verified energy thresholds make an upset unlikely before December 31. No major observational updates have altered this outlook in recent months.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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