**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ET
音量
$3,076終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
The U.S. federal budget deficit for September 2025 was $197,949,630,362.16 (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) reports a lower monthly deficit in December 2026 than in September 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury (fiscaldata.treasury.gov). The month surplus can be found in the column labeled "Current Month Deficit Surplus Amount" in the the table "Summary of Receipts, Outlays, and Surplus or Deficit” in the MTS (see: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/summary-of-receipts-outlays-and-the-deficit-surplus-of-the-u-s-government). If no report is published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET another credible source will be used.
音量
$3,076終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 93% probability that the deficit will not be reduced before 2027 because federal shortfalls have remained elevated through fiscal year 2026.** CBO projections and Treasury data show the FY2026 gap at approximately $1.9 trillion (5.8% of GDP), comparable to or exceeding FY2025 levels after accounting for timing shifts, with cumulative borrowing near $2 trillion through August. Key drivers include sustained entitlement and interest costs, defense funding priorities, and net effects from the 2025 reconciliation legislation alongside tariff adjustments. Administration efforts at non-defense discretionary restraint and rescissions have produced targeted savings, yet these have not offset broader outlay growth or produced a year-over-year decline. With midterms and debt-limit considerations ahead, the consensus reflects limited near-term scope for the scale of fiscal consolidation needed.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問