The elevated 93.3% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects stalled normalization prospects with major candidates, particularly Saudi Arabia, which continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood amid unresolved regional conflicts. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent formal expansion, while subsequent diplomatic outreach—including U.S. efforts to tie Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation to the Accords—has produced no breakthroughs. Potential partners such as Syria, Lebanon, Indonesia, and others cite similar prerequisites tied to the Palestinian issue or domestic constraints. Ongoing tensions from the Gaza conflict and related security dynamics have further narrowed the window for additional accessions in the limited time remaining.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$304,881 Vol.
$304,881 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$304,881 Vol.
$304,881 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The elevated 93.3% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects stalled normalization prospects with major candidates, particularly Saudi Arabia, which continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood amid unresolved regional conflicts. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent formal expansion, while subsequent diplomatic outreach—including U.S. efforts to tie Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation to the Accords—has produced no breakthroughs. Potential partners such as Syria, Lebanon, Indonesia, and others cite similar prerequisites tied to the Palestinian issue or domestic constraints. Ongoing tensions from the Gaza conflict and related security dynamics have further narrowed the window for additional accessions in the limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ET
音量
$304,881終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.The elevated 93.3% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects stalled normalization prospects with major candidates, particularly Saudi Arabia, which continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood amid unresolved regional conflicts. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent formal expansion, while subsequent diplomatic outreach—including U.S. efforts to tie Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation to the Accords—has produced no breakthroughs. Potential partners such as Syria, Lebanon, Indonesia, and others cite similar prerequisites tied to the Palestinian issue or domestic constraints. Ongoing tensions from the Gaza conflict and related security dynamics have further narrowed the window for additional accessions in the limited time remaining.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of June 26, 2025—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$304,881終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 3:17 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The elevated 93.3% implied probability that no new country will join the Abraham Accords before 2027 reflects stalled normalization prospects with major candidates, particularly Saudi Arabia, which continues to condition any agreement on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood amid unresolved regional conflicts. Kazakhstan’s November 2025 accession marked the most recent formal expansion, while subsequent diplomatic outreach—including U.S. efforts to tie Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation to the Accords—has produced no breakthroughs. Potential partners such as Syria, Lebanon, Indonesia, and others cite similar prerequisites tied to the Palestinian issue or domestic constraints. Ongoing tensions from the Gaza conflict and related security dynamics have further narrowed the window for additional accessions in the limited time remaining.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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