**US-Cuba tensions have centered on economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military confrontation.** The Trump administration has intensified sanctions, including restrictions on oil shipments that deepened Cuba’s energy crisis, while restoring the state sponsor of terrorism designation and targeting Cuban officials and entities. US officials have publicly discussed military contingency planning and conducted perimeter security talks with Cuban counterparts near Guantanamo Bay, yet multiple reports indicate no imminent action and emphasize ongoing assessments of non-kinetic options. A February 2026 armed boat incident involving Cuban exiles was explicitly disavowed as a US government operation. As of early September, recent developments focus on additional sanctions, Cuban economic reforms, and statements ruling out negotiations, with no verified escalatory military moves in the preceding months. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and contained rhetoric as the prevailing approach, reducing the near-term likelihood of a state-to-state clash.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$242,860 Vol.
$242,860 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$242,860 Vol.
$242,860 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US-Cuba tensions have centered on economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military confrontation.** The Trump administration has intensified sanctions, including restrictions on oil shipments that deepened Cuba’s energy crisis, while restoring the state sponsor of terrorism designation and targeting Cuban officials and entities. US officials have publicly discussed military contingency planning and conducted perimeter security talks with Cuban counterparts near Guantanamo Bay, yet multiple reports indicate no imminent action and emphasize ongoing assessments of non-kinetic options. A February 2026 armed boat incident involving Cuban exiles was explicitly disavowed as a US government operation. As of early September, recent developments focus on additional sanctions, Cuban economic reforms, and statements ruling out negotiations, with no verified escalatory military moves in the preceding months. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and contained rhetoric as the prevailing approach, reducing the near-term likelihood of a state-to-state clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
音量
$242,860終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**US-Cuba tensions have centered on economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military confrontation.** The Trump administration has intensified sanctions, including restrictions on oil shipments that deepened Cuba’s energy crisis, while restoring the state sponsor of terrorism designation and targeting Cuban officials and entities. US officials have publicly discussed military contingency planning and conducted perimeter security talks with Cuban counterparts near Guantanamo Bay, yet multiple reports indicate no imminent action and emphasize ongoing assessments of non-kinetic options. A February 2026 armed boat incident involving Cuban exiles was explicitly disavowed as a US government operation. As of early September, recent developments focus on additional sanctions, Cuban economic reforms, and statements ruling out negotiations, with no verified escalatory military moves in the preceding months. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and contained rhetoric as the prevailing approach, reducing the near-term likelihood of a state-to-state clash.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$242,860終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**US-Cuba tensions have centered on economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure rather than direct military confrontation.** The Trump administration has intensified sanctions, including restrictions on oil shipments that deepened Cuba’s energy crisis, while restoring the state sponsor of terrorism designation and targeting Cuban officials and entities. US officials have publicly discussed military contingency planning and conducted perimeter security talks with Cuban counterparts near Guantanamo Bay, yet multiple reports indicate no imminent action and emphasize ongoing assessments of non-kinetic options. A February 2026 armed boat incident involving Cuban exiles was explicitly disavowed as a US government operation. As of early September, recent developments focus on additional sanctions, Cuban economic reforms, and statements ruling out negotiations, with no verified escalatory military moves in the preceding months. Traders appear to view sustained economic measures and contained rhetoric as the prevailing approach, reducing the near-term likelihood of a state-to-state clash.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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