The U.S. military's strong 2026 recruiting performance across all active-duty services, with goals met or exceeded months early amid pay and outreach improvements, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization. The all-volunteer force established in 1973 remains the preferred model, supported by recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting December 2026, which updates database processes without restoring induction authority. No legislation has advanced to reinstate conscription, and bipartisan proposals to eliminate the Selective Service System highlight institutional resistance. A draft would require specific congressional action and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Escalation in ongoing operations, such as those involving Iran, or sudden shortfalls in specialized roles could prompt reconsideration within the remaining months of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$524,873 Vol.
$524,873 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$524,873 Vol.
$524,873 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military's strong 2026 recruiting performance across all active-duty services, with goals met or exceeded months early amid pay and outreach improvements, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization. The all-volunteer force established in 1973 remains the preferred model, supported by recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting December 2026, which updates database processes without restoring induction authority. No legislation has advanced to reinstate conscription, and bipartisan proposals to eliminate the Selective Service System highlight institutional resistance. A draft would require specific congressional action and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Escalation in ongoing operations, such as those involving Iran, or sudden shortfalls in specialized roles could prompt reconsideration within the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
音量
$524,873終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military's strong 2026 recruiting performance across all active-duty services, with goals met or exceeded months early amid pay and outreach improvements, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization. The all-volunteer force established in 1973 remains the preferred model, supported by recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting December 2026, which updates database processes without restoring induction authority. No legislation has advanced to reinstate conscription, and bipartisan proposals to eliminate the Selective Service System highlight institutional resistance. A draft would require specific congressional action and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Escalation in ongoing operations, such as those involving Iran, or sudden shortfalls in specialized roles could prompt reconsideration within the remaining months of the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$524,873終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military's strong 2026 recruiting performance across all active-duty services, with goals met or exceeded months early amid pay and outreach improvements, underpins trader consensus against draft authorization. The all-volunteer force established in 1973 remains the preferred model, supported by recent National Defense Authorization Act provisions for automatic Selective Service registration starting December 2026, which updates database processes without restoring induction authority. No legislation has advanced to reinstate conscription, and bipartisan proposals to eliminate the Selective Service System highlight institutional resistance. A draft would require specific congressional action and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding volunteer capacity. Escalation in ongoing operations, such as those involving Iran, or sudden shortfalls in specialized roles could prompt reconsideration within the remaining months of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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