Recent U.S. sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, including sectoral measures on shipping, oil networks, and secondary sanctions threats, have intensified pressure on Iran's economy and contributed to the rial's slide past 2.3 million per dollar on the free market by early September. Ongoing naval restrictions, reduced oil exports, and military exchanges near the Strait of Hormuz have further constrained hard-currency inflows while fueling domestic inflation and capital outflows. Traders weigh these enforcement dynamics against the possibility of renewed diplomacy, third-country compliance shifts, or Iranian adaptation measures that could stabilize or reverse the depreciation by year-end. The resulting uncertainty sustains tight probabilities across the 2.0–3.5 million range, with separation likely hinging on visible progress in sanctions relief or escalation signals before December.