In Roraima’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a fragmented field of 13 registered candidates where voters select two names. Late August Quaest polling showed Teresa Surita (MDB) at 19%, Nicoletti (PL) at 17%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) at 16%, and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) at 11%, with 17% undecided in the stimulated scenario and far higher in spontaneous responses. This narrow spread among the leading contenders, combined with limited subsequent surveys and ongoing campaign activity after August conventions and asset filings, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Nicoletti’s slight edge in market consensus aligns with his established federal deputy profile and PL alignment, while Surita’s name recognition from prior mayoral and congressional roles and Asatur’s business backing keep the ordering fluid. Further polling shifts or late endorsements could separate the top tier before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Nicoletti 51.6%
Teresa Surita 26%
Helena da Asatur 19.1%
Helio Bolsonaro 4.7%
$62,541 Vol.
$62,541 Vol.
2026/10/04
Nicoletti
52%
Teresa Surita
26%
Helena da Asatur
19%
Helio Bolsonaro
5%
Chico Rodrigues
3%
Pastor Isamar
<1%
Mario Rocha
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
<1%
Hilton Xavier
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
<1%
Rogério Miranda
<1%
Nicoletti 51.6%
Teresa Surita 26%
Helena da Asatur 19.1%
Helio Bolsonaro 4.7%
$62,541 Vol.
$62,541 Vol.
2026/10/04
Nicoletti
$11,121 Vol.
52%
Teresa Surita
$18,485 Vol.
26%
Helena da Asatur
$4,672 Vol.
19%
Helio Bolsonaro
$9,065 Vol.
5%
Chico Rodrigues
$13,612 Vol.
3%
Pastor Isamar
$952 Vol.
<1%
Mario Rocha
$810 Vol.
<1%
Bartô Macuxi
$581 Vol.
<1%
Hilton Xavier
$529 Vol.
<1%
Hiperion de Oliveira
$569 Vol.
<1%
Márcio Junqueira
$676 Vol.
<1%
Regina Tio Ivo
$887 Vol.
<1%
Rogério Miranda
$583 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Roraima’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a fragmented field of 13 registered candidates where voters select two names. Late August Quaest polling showed Teresa Surita (MDB) at 19%, Nicoletti (PL) at 17%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) at 16%, and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) at 11%, with 17% undecided in the stimulated scenario and far higher in spontaneous responses. This narrow spread among the leading contenders, combined with limited subsequent surveys and ongoing campaign activity after August conventions and asset filings, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Nicoletti’s slight edge in market consensus aligns with his established federal deputy profile and PL alignment, while Surita’s name recognition from prior mayoral and congressional roles and Asatur’s business backing keep the ordering fluid. Further polling shifts or late endorsements could separate the top tier before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
マーケット開始日： Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
音量
$62,541終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In Roraima’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a fragmented field of 13 registered candidates where voters select two names. Late August Quaest polling showed Teresa Surita (MDB) at 19%, Nicoletti (PL) at 17%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) at 16%, and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) at 11%, with 17% undecided in the stimulated scenario and far higher in spontaneous responses. This narrow spread among the leading contenders, combined with limited subsequent surveys and ongoing campaign activity after August conventions and asset filings, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Nicoletti’s slight edge in market consensus aligns with his established federal deputy profile and PL alignment, while Surita’s name recognition from prior mayoral and congressional roles and Asatur’s business backing keep the ordering fluid. Further polling shifts or late endorsements could separate the top tier before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Roraima is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
音量
$62,541終了日
2026/10/04マーケット開始日
Aug 17, 2026, 6:15 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...In Roraima’s October 4 Senate contest for two seats, trader pricing reflects a fragmented field of 13 registered candidates where voters select two names. Late August Quaest polling showed Teresa Surita (MDB) at 19%, Nicoletti (PL) at 17%, Helena da Asatur (PSD) at 16%, and Chico Rodrigues (PSB) at 11%, with 17% undecided in the stimulated scenario and far higher in spontaneous responses. This narrow spread among the leading contenders, combined with limited subsequent surveys and ongoing campaign activity after August conventions and asset filings, sustains tight implied probabilities for second place. Nicoletti’s slight edge in market consensus aligns with his established federal deputy profile and PL alignment, while Surita’s name recognition from prior mayoral and congressional roles and Asatur’s business backing keep the ordering fluid. Further polling shifts or late endorsements could separate the top tier before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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