**As of late September 2026, the October 27 Knesset election serves as the dominant near-term catalyst for trader views on when Benjamin Netanyahu might leave the premiership.** Israel’s parliament completed a rare full four-year term, with the vote widely viewed as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership amid the prolonged aftermath of the October 7, 2023 attacks and subsequent conflicts. Recent polls show his Likud party trailing Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party (typically 18–23 seats versus 22–24), while Netanyahu’s broader right-wing/religious bloc hovers near 51–54 seats—short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government. The opposing “change” bloc polls similarly close, often leaving both sides reliant on Arab parties or facing the prospect of another round of elections. Netanyahu has publicly stated he intends to remain Likud leader and opposition head even if his bloc falls short, and recent surveys indicate a divided electorate with no clear path to power for either side. Ongoing public dissatisfaction, protests calling for accountability, and preferences for Eisenkot or other opposition figures as prime minister in head-to-head matchups continue to pressure the incumbent’s position. Coalition negotiations after October 27 could extend into late 2026 or beyond, with Netanyahu potentially serving as caretaker prime minister in the interim. Any late shifts in turnout, surplus agreements, or post-election alliances remain key variables that could accelerate or delay his departure from office.