Traders assign a 99.4% probability to “Nothing” because September 2026 produced none of the defined resolution triggers, including major central bank moves, leadership changes at the Federal Reserve, or formal ceasefires and direct meetings in the Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Hamas conflicts. Ongoing military operations and diplomatic activity continued without crossing those thresholds, while scheduled elections and economic data releases stayed within anticipated bounds. With the month nearly complete, the market reflects the absence of sudden escalations or breakthroughs. Only an unexpected late announcement on monetary policy or a verified diplomatic agreement in the final hours could still alter the outcome before resolution.